{
  "competition": "fantasy_premier_league",
  "gameweek": 2,
  "article": "captains",
  "title": "Best captain picks — Gameweek 2",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-25T13:17:04.870089+00:00",
  "sims": 50000,
  "methodology": "Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.",
  "entries": [
    {
      "name": "B.Fernandes",
      "team": "MUN",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 8.61,
      "captain_ev": 17.23,
      "ceiling": 19.44,
      "price": 12.0,
      "ownership_pct": 49.8,
      "value": 0.718,
      "bonus": 2.18,
      "defcon": 0.19,
      "p_defcon": 0.096,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-30T15:30:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.9210526315789473,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 1,
      "kickoff_order": 6
    },
    {
      "name": "Haaland",
      "team": "MCI",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 7.31,
      "captain_ev": 14.62,
      "ceiling": 16.35,
      "price": 15.5,
      "ownership_pct": 68.6,
      "value": 0.472,
      "bonus": 1.98,
      "defcon": 0.0,
      "p_defcon": 0.0,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-28T19:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.8947368421052632,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 2,
      "kickoff_order": 1
    },
    {
      "name": "M.Sangaré",
      "team": "BRE",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 6.05,
      "captain_ev": 12.11,
      "ceiling": 11.49,
      "price": 5.5,
      "ownership_pct": 6.0,
      "value": 1.101,
      "bonus": 2.25,
      "defcon": 1.11,
      "p_defcon": 0.553,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-30T13:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.02631578947368421,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 3,
      "kickoff_order": 5
    },
    {
      "name": "Szoboszlai",
      "team": "LIV",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 5.91,
      "captain_ev": 11.81,
      "ceiling": 15.25,
      "price": 7.0,
      "ownership_pct": 42.6,
      "value": 0.844,
      "bonus": 0.95,
      "defcon": 0.35,
      "p_defcon": 0.174,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T11:30:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.9473684210526315,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 4,
      "kickoff_order": 2
    },
    {
      "name": "Thiago",
      "team": "BRE",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 5.17,
      "captain_ev": 10.34,
      "ceiling": 13.09,
      "price": 8.0,
      "ownership_pct": 17.1,
      "value": 0.646,
      "bonus": 0.98,
      "defcon": 0.02,
      "p_defcon": 0.01,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-30T13:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.9736842105263158,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 5,
      "kickoff_order": 5
    },
    {
      "name": "Mbeumo",
      "team": "MUN",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 5.1,
      "captain_ev": 10.21,
      "ceiling": 14.75,
      "price": 8.0,
      "ownership_pct": 37.0,
      "value": 0.638,
      "bonus": 0.84,
      "defcon": 0.01,
      "p_defcon": 0.003,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-30T15:30:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.8157894736842105,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 6,
      "kickoff_order": 6
    },
    {
      "name": "Virgil",
      "team": "LIV",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 5.07,
      "captain_ev": 10.15,
      "ceiling": 11.79,
      "price": 6.5,
      "ownership_pct": 19.6,
      "value": 0.78,
      "bonus": 0.31,
      "defcon": 0.74,
      "p_defcon": 0.372,
      "cs_points": 1.5,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T11:30:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 1.0,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 7,
      "kickoff_order": 2
    },
    {
      "name": "Tavernier",
      "team": "BOU",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 4.72,
      "captain_ev": 9.44,
      "ceiling": 14.46,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 2.0,
      "value": 0.787,
      "bonus": 0.8,
      "defcon": 0.16,
      "p_defcon": 0.081,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T14:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.8157894736842105,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 8,
      "kickoff_order": 3
    },
    {
      "name": "E.Le Fée",
      "team": "SUN",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 4.61,
      "captain_ev": 9.21,
      "ceiling": 13.25,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 9.4,
      "value": 0.768,
      "bonus": 0.77,
      "defcon": 0.36,
      "p_defcon": 0.182,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-30T13:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.868421052631579,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 9,
      "kickoff_order": 5
    },
    {
      "name": "Saka",
      "team": "ARS",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 4.59,
      "captain_ev": 9.17,
      "ceiling": 15.42,
      "price": 9.5,
      "ownership_pct": 10.3,
      "value": 0.483,
      "bonus": 1.16,
      "defcon": 0.08,
      "p_defcon": 0.041,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-31T19:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.6578947368421053,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 10,
      "kickoff_order": 7
    },
    {
      "name": "Senesi",
      "team": "TOT",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 4.56,
      "captain_ev": 9.12,
      "ceiling": 11.55,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 8.0,
      "value": 0.76,
      "bonus": 0.33,
      "defcon": 1.07,
      "p_defcon": 0.536,
      "cs_points": 0.93,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.9736842105263158,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 11,
      "kickoff_order": 4
    },
    {
      "name": "Calvert-Lewin",
      "team": "LEE",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 4.56,
      "captain_ev": 9.12,
      "ceiling": 12.88,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 29.8,
      "value": 0.76,
      "bonus": 0.91,
      "defcon": 0.0,
      "p_defcon": 0.0,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-30T13:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.7894736842105263,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 12,
      "kickoff_order": 5
    },
    {
      "name": "Gakpo",
      "team": "LIV",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 4.54,
      "captain_ev": 9.08,
      "ceiling": 13.75,
      "price": 7.0,
      "ownership_pct": 4.9,
      "value": 0.649,
      "bonus": 0.6,
      "defcon": 0.01,
      "p_defcon": 0.004,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T11:30:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.8421052631578947,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 13,
      "kickoff_order": 2
    },
    {
      "name": "Isak",
      "team": "LIV",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 4.36,
      "captain_ev": 8.72,
      "ceiling": 11.71,
      "price": 9.0,
      "ownership_pct": 16.8,
      "value": 0.484,
      "bonus": 0.98,
      "defcon": 0.0,
      "p_defcon": 0.001,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T11:30:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.21052631578947367,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 14,
      "kickoff_order": 2
    },
    {
      "name": "Evanilson",
      "team": "BOU",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 4.31,
      "captain_ev": 8.62,
      "ceiling": 11.94,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 2.7,
      "value": 0.718,
      "bonus": 0.83,
      "defcon": 0.0,
      "p_defcon": 0.001,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T14:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.8421052631578947,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 15,
      "kickoff_order": 3
    },
    {
      "name": "Truffert",
      "team": "BOU",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 4.27,
      "captain_ev": 8.54,
      "ceiling": 10.43,
      "price": 5.5,
      "ownership_pct": 4.3,
      "value": 0.777,
      "bonus": 0.38,
      "defcon": 0.46,
      "p_defcon": 0.228,
      "cs_points": 1.25,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T14:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 1.0,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 16,
      "kickoff_order": 3
    },
    {
      "name": "Gabriel",
      "team": "ARS",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 4.26,
      "captain_ev": 8.52,
      "ceiling": 11.27,
      "price": 8.0,
      "ownership_pct": 29.4,
      "value": 0.532,
      "bonus": 0.73,
      "defcon": 0.55,
      "p_defcon": 0.273,
      "cs_points": 1.33,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-31T19:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.7894736842105263,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 17,
      "kickoff_order": 7
    },
    {
      "name": "Wirtz",
      "team": "LIV",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 4.16,
      "captain_ev": 8.33,
      "ceiling": 13.8,
      "price": 7.5,
      "ownership_pct": 12.1,
      "value": 0.555,
      "bonus": 0.82,
      "defcon": 0.04,
      "p_defcon": 0.022,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T11:30:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.7105263157894737,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 18,
      "kickoff_order": 2
    },
    {
      "name": "Calafiori",
      "team": "ARS",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 4.15,
      "captain_ev": 8.29,
      "ceiling": 11.3,
      "price": 5.5,
      "ownership_pct": 41.1,
      "value": 0.754,
      "bonus": 0.34,
      "defcon": 0.06,
      "p_defcon": 0.029,
      "cs_points": 1.41,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-31T19:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.5789473684210527,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 19,
      "kickoff_order": 7
    },
    {
      "name": "Ndiaye",
      "team": "EVE",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 4.14,
      "captain_ev": 8.27,
      "ceiling": 12.76,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 16.1,
      "value": 0.689,
      "bonus": 0.58,
      "defcon": 0.26,
      "p_defcon": 0.128,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T14:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.8421052631578947,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 20,
      "kickoff_order": 3
    }
  ],
  "source": "https://evmax.ai",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "license_text": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with attribution to evmax (https://evmax.ai)"
}