{
  "competition": "fantasy_premier_league",
  "gameweek": 2,
  "article": "defcon",
  "title": "DefCon leaders — Gameweek 2",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-25T13:17:04.870089+00:00",
  "sims": 50000,
  "methodology": "Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.",
  "entries": [
    {
      "name": "M.Sangaré",
      "team": "BRE",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 6.05,
      "captain_ev": 12.11,
      "ceiling": 11.49,
      "price": 5.5,
      "ownership_pct": 6.0,
      "value": 1.101,
      "bonus": 2.25,
      "defcon": 1.11,
      "p_defcon": 0.553,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-30T13:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.02631578947368421,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 1,
      "defcon_threshold": 12
    },
    {
      "name": "Senesi",
      "team": "TOT",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 4.56,
      "captain_ev": 9.12,
      "ceiling": 11.55,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 8.0,
      "value": 0.76,
      "bonus": 0.33,
      "defcon": 1.07,
      "p_defcon": 0.536,
      "cs_points": 0.93,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.9736842105263158,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 2,
      "defcon_threshold": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "Lacroix",
      "team": "CHE",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 3.66,
      "captain_ev": 7.31,
      "ceiling": 8.78,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 9.3,
      "value": 0.609,
      "bonus": 0.09,
      "defcon": 0.96,
      "p_defcon": 0.482,
      "cs_points": 1.06,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-30T13:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.9210526315789473,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 3,
      "defcon_threshold": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "Tarkowski",
      "team": "EVE",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 3.74,
      "captain_ev": 7.49,
      "ceiling": 9.9,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 8.9,
      "value": 0.624,
      "bonus": 0.25,
      "defcon": 0.92,
      "p_defcon": 0.458,
      "cs_points": 0.8,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T14:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.9736842105263158,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 4,
      "defcon_threshold": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "Anderson",
      "team": "MCI",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 2.97,
      "captain_ev": 5.95,
      "ceiling": 7.81,
      "price": 6.5,
      "ownership_pct": 6.8,
      "value": 0.457,
      "bonus": 0.16,
      "defcon": 0.9,
      "p_defcon": 0.451,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-28T19:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.7302631578947368,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 5,
      "defcon_threshold": 12
    },
    {
      "name": "Garner",
      "team": "EVE",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 4.04,
      "captain_ev": 8.08,
      "ceiling": 9.27,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 0.1,
      "value": 0.673,
      "bonus": 0.35,
      "defcon": 0.87,
      "p_defcon": 0.435,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T14:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 1.0,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 6,
      "defcon_threshold": 12
    },
    {
      "name": "Andersen",
      "team": "FUL",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 3.56,
      "captain_ev": 7.11,
      "ceiling": 9.47,
      "price": 5.0,
      "ownership_pct": 0.0,
      "value": 0.711,
      "bonus": 0.11,
      "defcon": 0.8,
      "p_defcon": 0.401,
      "cs_points": 0.9,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-30T13:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.868421052631579,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 7,
      "defcon_threshold": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "Ampadu",
      "team": "LEE",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 2.95,
      "captain_ev": 5.89,
      "ceiling": 6.24,
      "price": 5.5,
      "ownership_pct": 1.4,
      "value": 0.536,
      "bonus": 0.05,
      "defcon": 0.78,
      "p_defcon": 0.39,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-30T13:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.9210526315789473,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 8,
      "defcon_threshold": 12
    },
    {
      "name": "Wieffer",
      "team": "BHA",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 2.58,
      "captain_ev": 5.17,
      "ceiling": 9.4,
      "price": 5.0,
      "ownership_pct": 0.4,
      "value": 0.517,
      "bonus": 0.23,
      "defcon": 0.77,
      "p_defcon": 0.383,
      "cs_points": 0.42,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-30T13:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.6052631578947368,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 9,
      "defcon_threshold": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "Keane",
      "team": "EVE",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 2.74,
      "captain_ev": 5.48,
      "ceiling": 8.33,
      "price": 5.0,
      "ownership_pct": 1.5,
      "value": 0.548,
      "bonus": 0.08,
      "defcon": 0.76,
      "p_defcon": 0.38,
      "cs_points": 0.62,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T14:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.7631578947368421,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 10,
      "defcon_threshold": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "Virgil",
      "team": "LIV",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 5.07,
      "captain_ev": 10.15,
      "ceiling": 11.79,
      "price": 6.5,
      "ownership_pct": 19.6,
      "value": 0.78,
      "bonus": 0.31,
      "defcon": 0.74,
      "p_defcon": 0.372,
      "cs_points": 1.5,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T11:30:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 1.0,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 11,
      "defcon_threshold": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "Alderete",
      "team": "SUN",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 3.42,
      "captain_ev": 6.85,
      "ceiling": 9.07,
      "price": 5.0,
      "ownership_pct": 0.5,
      "value": 0.685,
      "bonus": 0.09,
      "defcon": 0.73,
      "p_defcon": 0.364,
      "cs_points": 1.01,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-30T13:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.8421052631578947,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 12,
      "defcon_threshold": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "Richards",
      "team": "CRY",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 2.35,
      "captain_ev": 4.7,
      "ceiling": 7.33,
      "price": 5.0,
      "ownership_pct": 0.7,
      "value": 0.47,
      "bonus": 0.03,
      "defcon": 0.71,
      "p_defcon": 0.356,
      "cs_points": 0.46,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-28T19:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.8157894736842105,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 13,
      "defcon_threshold": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "Scott",
      "team": "BOU",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 3.72,
      "captain_ev": 7.43,
      "ceiling": 10.2,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 1.5,
      "value": 0.62,
      "bonus": 0.32,
      "defcon": 0.7,
      "p_defcon": 0.35,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T14:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.8947368421052632,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 14,
      "defcon_threshold": 12
    },
    {
      "name": "Ballard",
      "team": "SUN",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 3.09,
      "captain_ev": 6.18,
      "ceiling": 10.14,
      "price": 5.0,
      "ownership_pct": 5.3,
      "value": 0.618,
      "bonus": 0.2,
      "defcon": 0.7,
      "p_defcon": 0.35,
      "cs_points": 0.76,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-30T13:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.631578947368421,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 15,
      "defcon_threshold": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "Collins",
      "team": "BRE",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 3.05,
      "captain_ev": 6.09,
      "ceiling": 8.33,
      "price": 5.5,
      "ownership_pct": 2.0,
      "value": 0.554,
      "bonus": 0.07,
      "defcon": 0.69,
      "p_defcon": 0.346,
      "cs_points": 0.84,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-30T13:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.8421052631578947,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 16,
      "defcon_threshold": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "Hill",
      "team": "BOU",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 2.75,
      "captain_ev": 5.51,
      "ceiling": 9.57,
      "price": 5.5,
      "ownership_pct": 0.9,
      "value": 0.501,
      "bonus": 0.4,
      "defcon": 0.66,
      "p_defcon": 0.328,
      "cs_points": 0.72,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T14:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.5789473684210527,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 17,
      "defcon_threshold": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "Van Hecke",
      "team": "TOT",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 4.13,
      "captain_ev": 8.26,
      "ceiling": 11.08,
      "price": 5.0,
      "ownership_pct": 10.1,
      "value": 0.826,
      "bonus": 0.31,
      "defcon": 0.62,
      "p_defcon": 0.308,
      "cs_points": 0.97,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.9473684210526315,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 18,
      "defcon_threshold": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "Struijk",
      "team": "BHA",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 2.84,
      "captain_ev": 5.69,
      "ceiling": 8.43,
      "price": 5.0,
      "ownership_pct": 0.2,
      "value": 0.569,
      "bonus": 0.05,
      "defcon": 0.6,
      "p_defcon": 0.301,
      "cs_points": 0.63,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-30T13:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.868421052631579,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 19,
      "defcon_threshold": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "Xhaka",
      "team": "SUN",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 3.15,
      "captain_ev": 6.31,
      "ceiling": 8.27,
      "price": 5.5,
      "ownership_pct": 4.5,
      "value": 0.574,
      "bonus": 0.29,
      "defcon": 0.59,
      "p_defcon": 0.293,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-30T13:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.8421052631578947,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 20,
      "defcon_threshold": 12
    }
  ],
  "source": "https://evmax.ai",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "license_text": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with attribution to evmax (https://evmax.ai)"
}