{
  "competition": "fantasy_premier_league",
  "gameweek": 2,
  "article": "efficiency",
  "title": "Best value — points per million — Gameweek 2",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-25T13:17:04.870089+00:00",
  "sims": 50000,
  "methodology": "Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.",
  "entries": [
    {
      "name": "M.Sangaré",
      "team": "BRE",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 6.05,
      "captain_ev": 12.11,
      "ceiling": 11.49,
      "price": 5.5,
      "ownership_pct": 6.0,
      "value": 1.101,
      "bonus": 2.25,
      "defcon": 1.11,
      "p_defcon": 0.553,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-30T13:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.02631578947368421,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 1,
      "tier": "Mid"
    },
    {
      "name": "De Cuyper",
      "team": "BHA",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 3.9,
      "captain_ev": 7.8,
      "ceiling": 12.11,
      "price": 4.5,
      "ownership_pct": 5.1,
      "value": 0.866,
      "bonus": 0.49,
      "defcon": 0.02,
      "p_defcon": 0.012,
      "cs_points": 0.64,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-30T13:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.4473684210526316,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 2,
      "tier": "Budget"
    },
    {
      "name": "Szoboszlai",
      "team": "LIV",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 5.91,
      "captain_ev": 11.81,
      "ceiling": 15.25,
      "price": 7.0,
      "ownership_pct": 42.6,
      "value": 0.844,
      "bonus": 0.95,
      "defcon": 0.35,
      "p_defcon": 0.174,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T11:30:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.9473684210526315,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 3,
      "tier": "Mid"
    },
    {
      "name": "Shaw",
      "team": "MUN",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 3.73,
      "captain_ev": 7.45,
      "ceiling": 7.66,
      "price": 4.5,
      "ownership_pct": 20.3,
      "value": 0.828,
      "bonus": 0.04,
      "defcon": 0.16,
      "p_defcon": 0.079,
      "cs_points": 1.61,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-30T15:30:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 1.0,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 4,
      "tier": "Budget"
    },
    {
      "name": "Van Hecke",
      "team": "TOT",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 4.13,
      "captain_ev": 8.26,
      "ceiling": 11.08,
      "price": 5.0,
      "ownership_pct": 10.1,
      "value": 0.826,
      "bonus": 0.31,
      "defcon": 0.62,
      "p_defcon": 0.308,
      "cs_points": 0.97,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.9473684210526315,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 5,
      "tier": "Budget"
    },
    {
      "name": "Petrović",
      "team": "BOU",
      "position": "GK",
      "x_points": 3.58,
      "captain_ev": 7.15,
      "ceiling": 8.06,
      "price": 4.5,
      "ownership_pct": 3.3,
      "value": 0.795,
      "bonus": 0.29,
      "defcon": 0.0,
      "p_defcon": 0.0,
      "cs_points": 1.25,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T14:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 1.0,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 6,
      "tier": "Budget"
    },
    {
      "name": "Tavernier",
      "team": "BOU",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 4.72,
      "captain_ev": 9.44,
      "ceiling": 14.46,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 2.0,
      "value": 0.787,
      "bonus": 0.8,
      "defcon": 0.16,
      "p_defcon": 0.081,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T14:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.8157894736842105,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 7,
      "tier": "Mid"
    },
    {
      "name": "Virgil",
      "team": "LIV",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 5.07,
      "captain_ev": 10.15,
      "ceiling": 11.79,
      "price": 6.5,
      "ownership_pct": 19.6,
      "value": 0.78,
      "bonus": 0.31,
      "defcon": 0.74,
      "p_defcon": 0.372,
      "cs_points": 1.5,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T11:30:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 1.0,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 8,
      "tier": "Mid"
    },
    {
      "name": "Truffert",
      "team": "BOU",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 4.27,
      "captain_ev": 8.54,
      "ceiling": 10.43,
      "price": 5.5,
      "ownership_pct": 4.3,
      "value": 0.777,
      "bonus": 0.38,
      "defcon": 0.46,
      "p_defcon": 0.228,
      "cs_points": 1.25,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T14:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 1.0,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 9,
      "tier": "Mid"
    },
    {
      "name": "E.Le Fée",
      "team": "SUN",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 4.61,
      "captain_ev": 9.21,
      "ceiling": 13.25,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 9.4,
      "value": 0.768,
      "bonus": 0.77,
      "defcon": 0.36,
      "p_defcon": 0.182,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-30T13:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.868421052631579,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 10,
      "tier": "Mid"
    },
    {
      "name": "Maguire",
      "team": "MUN",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 3.81,
      "captain_ev": 7.63,
      "ceiling": 9.38,
      "price": 5.0,
      "ownership_pct": 17.6,
      "value": 0.763,
      "bonus": 0.24,
      "defcon": 0.42,
      "p_defcon": 0.21,
      "cs_points": 1.43,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-30T15:30:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.5,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 11,
      "tier": "Budget"
    },
    {
      "name": "Senesi",
      "team": "TOT",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 4.56,
      "captain_ev": 9.12,
      "ceiling": 11.55,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 8.0,
      "value": 0.76,
      "bonus": 0.33,
      "defcon": 1.07,
      "p_defcon": 0.536,
      "cs_points": 0.93,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.9736842105263158,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 12,
      "tier": "Mid"
    },
    {
      "name": "Calvert-Lewin",
      "team": "LEE",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 4.56,
      "captain_ev": 9.12,
      "ceiling": 12.88,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 29.8,
      "value": 0.76,
      "bonus": 0.91,
      "defcon": 0.0,
      "p_defcon": 0.0,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-30T13:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.7894736842105263,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 13,
      "tier": "Mid"
    },
    {
      "name": "Leno",
      "team": "FUL",
      "position": "GK",
      "x_points": 3.41,
      "captain_ev": 6.83,
      "ceiling": 8.29,
      "price": 4.5,
      "ownership_pct": 3.1,
      "value": 0.758,
      "bonus": 0.35,
      "defcon": 0.0,
      "p_defcon": 0.0,
      "cs_points": 1.04,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-30T13:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 1.0,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 14,
      "tier": "Budget"
    },
    {
      "name": "Calafiori",
      "team": "ARS",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 4.15,
      "captain_ev": 8.29,
      "ceiling": 11.3,
      "price": 5.5,
      "ownership_pct": 41.1,
      "value": 0.754,
      "bonus": 0.34,
      "defcon": 0.06,
      "p_defcon": 0.029,
      "cs_points": 1.41,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-31T19:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.5789473684210527,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 15,
      "tier": "Mid"
    },
    {
      "name": "Hume",
      "team": "SUN",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 3.34,
      "captain_ev": 6.67,
      "ceiling": 9.09,
      "price": 4.5,
      "ownership_pct": 6.7,
      "value": 0.742,
      "bonus": 0.11,
      "defcon": 0.13,
      "p_defcon": 0.067,
      "cs_points": 1.07,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-30T13:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.8947368421052632,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 16,
      "tier": "Budget"
    },
    {
      "name": "Konsa",
      "team": "ARS",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 3.29,
      "captain_ev": 6.58,
      "ceiling": 7.22,
      "price": 4.5,
      "ownership_pct": 11.6,
      "value": 0.731,
      "bonus": 0.03,
      "defcon": 0.12,
      "p_defcon": 0.058,
      "cs_points": 1.51,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-31T19:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.8947368421052632,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 17,
      "tier": "Budget"
    },
    {
      "name": "Dubravka",
      "team": "TOT",
      "position": "GK",
      "x_points": 2.92,
      "captain_ev": 5.85,
      "ceiling": 7.05,
      "price": 4.0,
      "ownership_pct": 19.0,
      "value": 0.731,
      "bonus": 0.14,
      "defcon": 0.0,
      "p_defcon": 0.0,
      "cs_points": 0.94,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.9210526315789473,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 18,
      "tier": "Budget"
    },
    {
      "name": "B.Fernandes",
      "team": "MUN",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 8.61,
      "captain_ev": 17.23,
      "ceiling": 19.44,
      "price": 12.0,
      "ownership_pct": 49.8,
      "value": 0.718,
      "bonus": 2.18,
      "defcon": 0.19,
      "p_defcon": 0.096,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-30T15:30:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.9210526315789473,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 19,
      "tier": "Premium"
    },
    {
      "name": "Evanilson",
      "team": "BOU",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 4.31,
      "captain_ev": 8.62,
      "ceiling": 11.94,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 2.7,
      "value": 0.718,
      "bonus": 0.83,
      "defcon": 0.0,
      "p_defcon": 0.001,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-08-29T14:00:00+00:00",
      "start_prob": 0.8421052631578947,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 20,
      "tier": "Mid"
    }
  ],
  "source": "https://evmax.ai",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "license_text": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with attribution to evmax (https://evmax.ai)"
}