{
  "gameweek": 3,
  "generated_at": "2026-09-03T14:39:37.562989+00:00",
  "id": 644,
  "name": "Timber",
  "web_name": "Timber",
  "team": "CRY",
  "position": "MID",
  "price": 5.0,
  "ownership_pct": 0.0,
  "status": "a",
  "news": "",
  "flag": null,
  "kickoff": "2026-09-05T14:00:00+00:00",
  "projection": {
    "x_points": 0.69,
    "captain_ev": 1.37,
    "ceiling": 3.72,
    "value": 0.137,
    "bonus": 0.04,
    "defcon": 0.0,
    "p_defcon": 0.0,
    "cs_points": 0.0,
    "start_prob": 0.25
  },
  "season": {
    "total_points": 0,
    "event_points": 0,
    "minutes": 0,
    "realized_ppm": 0.0
  },
  "transfers": {
    "in_event": 160,
    "out_event": 26
  },
  "ranks": {
    "xpts_rank": 328,
    "own_rank": 638,
    "own_vs_xpts_gap": 310
  },
  "verdict_tier": "C",
  "verdict": {
    "tier": "C",
    "price_band": "Budget",
    "stance": "we do not own him",
    "rank_call": "hold"
  },
  "six_week_xpts": {
    "3": 0.7,
    "4": 0.78,
    "5": 0.69,
    "6": 0.72,
    "7": 0.71
  },
  "form_history": [],
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "gw": 3,
      "opponent": "FUL",
      "venue": "A",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-05T14:00:00Z",
      "difficulty": 3,
      "lam_for": 1.26,
      "lam_against": 1.482,
      "source": "market"
    },
    {
      "gw": 4,
      "opponent": "IPS",
      "venue": "H",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-12T14:00:00Z",
      "difficulty": 2,
      "lam_for": 1.584,
      "lam_against": 1.029,
      "source": "market"
    },
    {
      "gw": 5,
      "opponent": "LEE",
      "venue": "A",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-20T13:00:00Z",
      "difficulty": null,
      "lam_for": null,
      "lam_against": null,
      "source": "unpriced"
    },
    {
      "gw": 6,
      "opponent": "NFO",
      "venue": "H",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-11T13:00:00Z",
      "difficulty": null,
      "lam_for": null,
      "lam_against": null,
      "source": "unpriced"
    },
    {
      "gw": 7,
      "opponent": "BHA",
      "venue": "A",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:00:00Z",
      "difficulty": null,
      "lam_for": null,
      "lam_against": null,
      "source": "unpriced"
    }
  ],
  "squads": {
    "model": false,
    "consensus": false,
    "model_role": null,
    "consensus_role": null
  },
  "notes": [],
  "distribution": {
    "histogram": {
      "-2": 45,
      "1": 2683,
      "2": 6660,
      "5": 866,
      "4": 331,
      "7": 751,
      "0": 37716,
      "12": 54,
      "6": 292,
      "9": 65,
      "17": 8,
      "13": 32,
      "3": 28,
      "11": 66,
      "-1": 96,
      "8": 123,
      "16": 10,
      "15": 23,
      "10": 96,
      "18": 8,
      "14": 33,
      "23": 2,
      "20": 2,
      "-3": 4,
      "19": 3,
      "21": 2,
      "27": 1
    },
    "sims": 50000,
    "p10": 0,
    "median": 0,
    "mode": 0,
    "p90": 2,
    "p_haul": 0.0068,
    "p_blank": 0.9441
  },
  "page": "/fpl/players/644-timber/",
  "methodology": "Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.",
  "source": "https://evmax.ai",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "license_text": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with attribution to evmax (https://evmax.ai)"
}