{ "competition": "fantasy_premier_league", "gameweek": 4, "article": "consensus-squad", "title": "The consensus XI — Gameweek 4", "generated_at": "2026-09-11T10:46:46.664817+00:00", "sims": 50000, "methodology": "Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.", "entries": [ { "name": "Raya", "team": "ARS", "position": "GK", "x_points": 4.27, "captain_ev": 8.54, "ceiling": 8.8, "price": 6.0, "ownership_pct": 39.0, "value": 0.712, "bonus": 0.59, "defcon": 0.0, "p_defcon": 0.0, "cs_points": 1.93, "kickoff": "2026-09-12T19:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "1": 6325, "9": 3520, "6": 6771, "2": 12385, "8": 5609, "7": 4980, "3": 3012, "5": 1761, "10": 1139, "0": 3995, "4": 168, "-2": 79, "11": 73, "-1": 168, "-3": 12, "-4": 1, "12": 2 }, "p10": 1, "median": 3, "p90": 8, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.0243, "p_blank": 0.4593, "start_prob": 0.9876950135021174, "player_id": 1, "ep_next": 5.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 1, "role": "XI", "is_captain": false, "is_vice": false, "bench_order": null }, { "name": "Calafiori", "team": "ARS", "position": "DEF", "x_points": 4.5, "captain_ev": 8.99, "ceiling": 11.3, "price": 5.8, "ownership_pct": 48.4, "value": 0.776, "bonus": 0.22, "defcon": 0.06, "p_defcon": 0.03, "cs_points": 1.82, "kickoff": "2026-09-12T19:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "1": 8112, "6": 15497, "2": 9400, "7": 1562, "14": 825, "0": 4989, "8": 1733, "5": 2560, "15": 1367, "3": 457, "13": 384, "-1": 159, "16": 79, "12": 257, "10": 445, "21": 125, "4": 728, "11": 429, "9": 481, "17": 117, "24": 16, "18": 81, "-2": 89, "23": 12, "19": 14, "20": 58, "-3": 7, "22": 7, "27": 8, "-4": 1, "29": 1 }, "p10": 0, "median": 5, "p90": 8, "mode": 6, "p_haul": 0.0845, "p_blank": 0.4551, "start_prob": 0.9251272855467827, "player_id": 8, "ep_next": 7.3, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 2, "role": "XI", "is_captain": false, "is_vice": false, "bench_order": null }, { "name": "O'Reilly", "team": "MCI", "position": "DEF", "x_points": 1.98, "captain_ev": 3.97, "ceiling": 7.9, "price": 6.4, "ownership_pct": 14.0, "value": 0.309, "bonus": 0.1, "defcon": 0.05, "p_defcon": 0.025, "cs_points": 0.53, "kickoff": "2026-09-13T15:30:00+00:00", "distribution": { "1": 11017, "2": 6362, "6": 4780, "0": 21075, "4": 968, "15": 354, "8": 897, "5": 1159, "-2": 149, "3": 536, "14": 208, "10": 239, "7": 1039, "17": 50, "-3": 17, "-1": 282, "12": 145, "11": 222, "9": 261, "13": 125, "-4": 4, "21": 24, "20": 14, "19": 5, "16": 34, "18": 26, "26": 1, "23": 2, "27": 1, "22": 1, "24": 3 }, "p10": 0, "median": 1, "p90": 6, "mode": 0, "p_haul": 0.0291, "p_blank": 0.7781, "start_prob": 0.6122886457701086, "player_id": 387, "ep_next": 1.3, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 3, "role": "XI", "is_captain": false, "is_vice": false, "bench_order": null }, { "name": "Shaw", "team": "MUN", "position": "DEF", "x_points": 2.35, "captain_ev": 4.71, "ceiling": 7.77, "price": 4.4, "ownership_pct": 13.3, "value": 0.534, "bonus": 0.2, "defcon": 0.27, "p_defcon": 0.133, "cs_points": 0.64, "kickoff": "2026-09-13T15:30:00+00:00", "distribution": { "7": 2460, "1": 14389, "0": 10578, "4": 2367, "2": 9791, "3": 2666, "9": 810, "6": 2107, "5": 1189, "12": 166, "-1": 669, "8": 1795, "10": 365, "11": 218, "-2": 217, "15": 52, "14": 43, "-3": 61, "20": 1, "17": 14, "13": 29, "-4": 8, "16": 2, "18": 1, "21": 1, "23": 1 }, "p10": 0, "median": 1, "p90": 7, "mode": 1, "p_haul": 0.0179, "p_blank": 0.7143, "start_prob": 0.9918661953658064, "player_id": 423, "ep_next": 2.3, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 4, "role": "XI", "is_captain": false, "is_vice": false, "bench_order": null }, { "name": "Szoboszlai", "team": "LIV", "position": "MID", "x_points": 5.72, "captain_ev": 11.45, "ceiling": 14.75, "price": 7.0, "ownership_pct": 38.4, "value": 0.817, "bonus": 0.82, "defcon": 0.26, "p_defcon": 0.129, "cs_points": 0.33, "kickoff": "2026-09-12T14:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "3": 6559, "2": 10535, "6": 2711, "1": 2487, "12": 1148, "4": 2276, "10": 2711, "17": 313, "11": 1688, "9": 2931, "5": 3209, "7": 1286, "0": 4436, "19": 207, "16": 778, "18": 392, "15": 1183, "13": 1310, "8": 2123, "14": 928, "24": 46, "20": 215, "-2": 29, "21": 169, "-1": 143, "-3": 2, "25": 31, "27": 8, "32": 2, "28": 6, "23": 57, "22": 50, "26": 22, "30": 4, "29": 3, "31": 2 }, "p10": 1, "median": 4, "p90": 13, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.2255, "p_blank": 0.3526, "start_prob": 0.9835238316384285, "player_id": 368, "ep_next": 5.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 5, "role": "XI", "is_captain": false, "is_vice": false, "bench_order": null }, { "name": "Mbeumo", "team": "MUN", "position": "MID", "x_points": 4.27, "captain_ev": 8.55, "ceiling": 12.05, "price": 7.9, "ownership_pct": 24.7, "value": 0.541, "bonus": 0.5, "defcon": 0.05, "p_defcon": 0.026, "cs_points": 0.17, "kickoff": "2026-09-13T15:30:00+00:00", "distribution": { "6": 1203, "1": 3867, "2": 18806, "9": 2872, "13": 590, "7": 2305, "15": 913, "8": 2876, "3": 4777, "0": 4578, "10": 1294, "5": 2089, "4": 916, "17": 94, "24": 4, "18": 127, "14": 670, "20": 149, "26": 5, "11": 671, "12": 466, "19": 73, "-1": 234, "-2": 38, "16": 294, "23": 18, "21": 41, "25": 12, "22": 12, "28": 2, "27": 1, "29": 2, "30": 1 }, "p10": 1, "median": 2, "p90": 10, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.1088, "p_blank": 0.5505, "start_prob": 0.9626679223199834, "player_id": 427, "ep_next": 7.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 6, "role": "XI", "is_captain": false, "is_vice": false, "bench_order": null }, { "name": "Tzolis", "team": "ARS", "position": "MID", "x_points": 2.41, "captain_ev": 4.83, "ceiling": 7.61, "price": 6.4, "ownership_pct": 16.7, "value": 0.377, "bonus": 0.18, "defcon": 0.04, "p_defcon": 0.02, "cs_points": 0.33, "kickoff": "2026-09-12T19:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "0": 11984, "3": 10995, "10": 695, "8": 715, "2": 9521, "7": 555, "1": 8962, "5": 1489, "13": 145, "9": 844, "4": 1015, "6": 1964, "-2": 113, "11": 404, "14": 128, "-1": 142, "12": 145, "18": 11, "-3": 10, "16": 68, "15": 64, "19": 5, "21": 4, "17": 16, "25": 1, "24": 3, "22": 1, "20": 1 }, "p10": 0, "median": 2, "p90": 6, "mode": 0, "p_haul": 0.0338, "p_blank": 0.6146, "start_prob": 0.8888380033326884, "player_id": 557, "ep_next": 3.7, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 7, "role": "XI", "is_captain": false, "is_vice": false, "bench_order": null }, { "name": "Rogers", "team": "CHE", "position": "MID", "x_points": 4.66, "captain_ev": 9.31, "ceiling": 11.99, "price": 7.6, "ownership_pct": 31.0, "value": 0.613, "bonus": 0.41, "defcon": 0.07, "p_defcon": 0.036, "cs_points": 0.43, "kickoff": "2026-09-12T14:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "2": 12235, "3": 10646, "9": 2605, "7": 1349, "5": 3341, "10": 1473, "18": 149, "12": 742, "8": 2791, "6": 3970, "1": 2502, "11": 656, "17": 143, "13": 844, "15": 520, "16": 390, "-1": 135, "4": 1072, "0": 3594, "21": 46, "14": 562, "22": 19, "24": 13, "19": 104, "20": 49, "25": 4, "-2": 28, "28": 2, "27": 2, "29": 2, "23": 9, "26": 2, "-3": 1 }, "p10": 1, "median": 3, "p90": 10, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.1146, "p_blank": 0.3699, "start_prob": 0.9876950135021174, "player_id": 40, "ep_next": 6.3, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 8, "role": "XI", "is_captain": false, "is_vice": false, "bench_order": null }, { "name": "Haaland", "team": "MCI", "position": "FWD", "x_points": 6.07, "captain_ev": 12.13, "ceiling": 14.81, "price": 15.5, "ownership_pct": 71.3, "value": 0.392, "bonus": 1.5, "defcon": 0.0, "p_defcon": 0.002, "cs_points": 0.0, "kickoff": "2026-09-13T15:30:00+00:00", "distribution": { "2": 15394, "9": 8424, "17": 1599, "7": 1589, "13": 5246, "-2": 44, "8": 4449, "5": 783, "12": 1314, "1": 3274, "6": 517, "-1": 202, "21": 359, "4": 204, "16": 544, "25": 67, "10": 113, "3": 55, "11": 265, "0": 5246, "20": 114, "15": 81, "19": 20, "14": 27, "29": 9, "24": 37, "23": 6, "18": 10, "28": 3, "22": 2, "33": 2, "-3": 1 }, "p10": 0, "median": 5, "p90": 13, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.1964, "p_blank": 0.4832, "start_prob": 0.9751814679110504, "player_id": 411, "ep_next": 8.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 9, "role": "XI", "is_captain": true, "is_vice": false, "bench_order": null }, { "name": "João Pedro", "team": "CHE", "position": "FWD", "x_points": 5.9, "captain_ev": 11.79, "ceiling": 14.54, "price": 7.7, "ownership_pct": 72.9, "value": 0.766, "bonus": 1.3, "defcon": 0.0, "p_defcon": 0.0, "cs_points": 0.0, "kickoff": "2026-09-12T14:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "1": 3317, "8": 4848, "4": 346, "13": 4367, "2": 15771, "9": 5816, "-1": 213, "7": 2340, "6": 1184, "21": 229, "17": 1206, "16": 672, "10": 257, "11": 760, "12": 1663, "5": 1843, "19": 46, "15": 196, "20": 168, "25": 42, "0": 4435, "24": 35, "-2": 41, "14": 63, "28": 12, "3": 100, "23": 13, "27": 2, "29": 5, "18": 3, "32": 2, "33": 1, "-3": 1, "31": 1, "22": 1, "26": 1 }, "p10": 1, "median": 5, "p90": 13, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.1949, "p_blank": 0.4756, "start_prob": 0.9626679223199834, "player_id": 165, "ep_next": 7.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 10, "role": "XI", "is_captain": false, "is_vice": true, "bench_order": null }, { "name": "Calvert-Lewin", "team": "LEE", "position": "FWD", "x_points": 5.02, "captain_ev": 10.04, "ceiling": 13.33, "price": 6.0, "ownership_pct": 23.0, "value": 0.837, "bonus": 1.2, "defcon": 0.0, "p_defcon": 0.0, "cs_points": 0.0, "kickoff": "2026-09-14T19:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "2": 17667, "11": 160, "9": 5890, "-1": 206, "1": 4046, "8": 5412, "4": 154, "12": 1147, "7": 2013, "13": 3938, "5": 621, "6": 628, "0": 6446, "17": 942, "21": 163, "16": 277, "-3": 2, "-2": 39, "20": 56, "25": 22, "10": 52, "29": 5, "3": 62, "14": 12, "15": 22, "18": 2, "19": 6, "24": 8, "23": 2 }, "p10": 0, "median": 2, "p90": 13, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.1363, "p_blank": 0.5681, "start_prob": 0.9584967404562945, "player_id": 346, "ep_next": 3.3, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 11, "role": "XI", "is_captain": false, "is_vice": false, "bench_order": null }, { "name": "Kinsky", "team": "TOT", "position": "GK", "x_points": 3.31, "captain_ev": 6.62, "ceiling": 8.77, "price": 4.5, "ownership_pct": 18.4, "value": 0.736, "bonus": 0.5, "defcon": 0.0, "p_defcon": 0.0, "cs_points": 1.23, "kickoff": "2026-09-12T16:30:00+00:00", "distribution": { "2": 13344, "10": 1435, "7": 2869, "3": 4115, "1": 9227, "9": 2512, "4": 342, "5": 946, "6": 3006, "11": 139, "8": 4371, "0": 7304, "-1": 249, "-2": 123, "-3": 14, "-4": 3, "12": 1 }, "p10": 0, "median": 2, "p90": 8, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.0315, "p_blank": 0.6053, "start_prob": 0.8625595575914479, "player_id": 496, "ep_next": 3.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 12, "role": "Bench", "is_captain": false, "is_vice": false, "bench_order": 1 }, { "name": "Guéhi", "team": "MCI", "position": "DEF", "x_points": 3.17, "captain_ev": 6.34, "ceiling": 9.37, "price": 6.0, "ownership_pct": 18.5, "value": 0.528, "bonus": 0.31, "defcon": 0.22, "p_defcon": 0.112, "cs_points": 0.87, "kickoff": "2026-09-13T15:30:00+00:00", "distribution": { "1": 12626, "6": 2483, "2": 10603, "10": 670, "5": 1608, "-1": 438, "7": 3509, "8": 3137, "3": 1929, "12": 240, "9": 1161, "0": 7899, "17": 82, "4": 2195, "11": 372, "15": 379, "19": 6, "14": 239, "-2": 146, "16": 53, "13": 121, "-3": 41, "18": 19, "20": 11, "-4": 3, "21": 26, "23": 1, "27": 2, "24": 1 }, "p10": 0, "median": 2, "p90": 8, "mode": 1, "p_haul": 0.0444, "p_blank": 0.6351, "start_prob": 0.9793526497747395, "player_id": 388, "ep_next": 6.7, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 13, "role": "Bench", "is_captain": false, "is_vice": false, "bench_order": 2 }, { "name": "Diop", "team": "IPS", "position": "DEF", "x_points": 2.66, "captain_ev": 5.33, "ceiling": 8.51, "price": 4.0, "ownership_pct": 14.6, "value": 0.665, "bonus": 0.23, "defcon": 0.48, "p_defcon": 0.241, "cs_points": 0.66, "kickoff": "2026-09-12T14:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "-1": 507, "1": 12351, "4": 3243, "0": 10308, "3": 4555, "11": 193, "2": 8960, "10": 699, "6": 1471, "8": 1913, "7": 3015, "9": 1343, "5": 702, "12": 115, "16": 21, "-3": 45, "17": 75, "-2": 189, "14": 74, "15": 162, "13": 32, "20": 4, "21": 7, "19": 5, "-4": 3, "18": 5, "23": 2, "22": 1 }, "p10": 0, "median": 2, "p90": 7, "mode": 1, "p_haul": 0.0279, "p_blank": 0.6473, "start_prob": 0.8667307394551368, "player_id": 259, "ep_next": 2.3, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 14, "role": "Bench", "is_captain": false, "is_vice": false, "bench_order": 3 }, { "name": "Slater", "team": "HUL", "position": "MID", "x_points": 2.08, "captain_ev": 4.16, "ceiling": 5.49, "price": 4.5, "ownership_pct": 5.3, "value": 0.462, "bonus": 0.06, "defcon": 0.07, "p_defcon": 0.037, "cs_points": 0.06, "kickoff": "2026-09-12T14:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "1": 5486, "2": 26733, "9": 420, "5": 2278, "3": 2424, "4": 1732, "6": 643, "7": 562, "-2": 65, "0": 8444, "8": 515, "12": 67, "10": 143, "14": 16, "-1": 328, "15": 17, "13": 45, "11": 76, "17": 2, "-3": 3, "18": 1 }, "p10": 0, "median": 2, "p90": 4, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.0073, "p_blank": 0.8212, "start_prob": 0.8888380033326884, "player_id": 290, "ep_next": 3.7, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 15, "role": "Bench", "is_captain": false, "is_vice": false, "bench_order": 4 } ], "source": "https://evmax.ai", "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "license_text": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with attribution to evmax (https://evmax.ai)", "squad": { "team_name": "The Consensus XI", "strategy": "consensus", "formation": "3-4-3", "xi_xpoints": 47.15, "projected_total": 53.22, "captain": "Haaland", "vice": "João Pedro", "total_cost": 99.5, "free_transfers": 1, "chips_used": [ "wildcard" ] } }