{ "competition": "fantasy_premier_league", "gameweek": 6, "article": "efficiency", "title": "Best value — points per million — Gameweek 6", "generated_at": "2026-10-09T14:26:59.973098+00:00", "sims": 50000, "methodology": "Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.", "entries": [ { "name": "Barry", "team": "EVE", "position": "FWD", "x_points": 6.02, "captain_ev": 12.04, "ceiling": 14.23, "price": 5.7, "ownership_pct": 8.6, "value": 1.056, "bonus": 1.36, "defcon": 0.0, "p_defcon": 0.0, "cs_points": 0.0, "kickoff": "2026-10-11T13:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "1": 3311, "5": 462, "13": 5157, "9": 8881, "21": 265, "2": 19573, "8": 5197, "6": 558, "7": 1772, "3": 76, "12": 1095, "17": 1303, "10": 90, "4": 120, "-1": 188, "19": 4, "16": 302, "0": 1324, "25": 42, "11": 123, "-2": 32, "20": 76, "15": 20, "23": 1, "24": 6, "14": 12, "29": 5, "28": 1, "18": 3, "37": 1 }, "p10": 2, "median": 5, "p90": 13, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.1701, "p_blank": 0.4886, "start_prob": 0.9832319835925567, "player_id": 249, "ep_next": 4.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 1, "tier": "Mid" }, { "name": "Davis", "team": "IPS", "position": "DEF", "x_points": 3.89, "captain_ev": 7.78, "ceiling": 11.14, "price": 4.0, "ownership_pct": 7.3, "value": 0.973, "bonus": 0.2, "defcon": 0.12, "p_defcon": 0.059, "cs_points": 0.94, "kickoff": "2026-10-10T14:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "2": 10350, "6": 7832, "1": 12166, "0": 5101, "10": 529, "5": 1840, "11": 391, "4": 1657, "8": 2027, "15": 1076, "3": 1049, "14": 564, "7": 2629, "17": 169, "9": 767, "21": 142, "-2": 171, "13": 291, "16": 131, "-1": 413, "12": 414, "24": 3, "-3": 44, "18": 117, "33": 1, "23": 16, "20": 47, "29": 2, "22": 14, "19": 24, "27": 9, "36": 1, "-4": 6, "26": 2, "25": 3, "30": 1, "28": 1 }, "p10": 0, "median": 2, "p90": 8, "mode": 1, "p_haul": 0.079, "p_blank": 0.565, "start_prob": 0.976418594339928, "player_id": 305, "ep_next": 8.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 2, "tier": "Budget" }, { "name": "Bobby Thomas", "team": "COV", "position": "DEF", "x_points": 3.75, "captain_ev": 7.5, "ceiling": 10.34, "price": 4.0, "ownership_pct": 8.6, "value": 0.938, "bonus": 0.31, "defcon": 0.77, "p_defcon": 0.384, "cs_points": 0.77, "kickoff": "2026-10-12T19:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "7": 3034, "2": 8644, "8": 2477, "6": 1919, "1": 10017, "0": 4925, "3": 6479, "4": 5134, "9": 2246, "12": 357, "5": 970, "13": 156, "10": 1352, "11": 578, "-1": 438, "15": 376, "-2": 140, "17": 260, "16": 103, "14": 221, "18": 34, "-3": 40, "20": 26, "29": 1, "21": 22, "23": 16, "19": 20, "-4": 7, "22": 4, "27": 2, "24": 1, "26": 1 }, "p10": 0, "median": 3, "p90": 9, "mode": 1, "p_haul": 0.0706, "p_blank": 0.4842, "start_prob": 0.976418594339928, "player_id": 173, "ep_next": 4.5, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 3, "tier": "Budget" }, { "name": "Gonzalo", "team": "FUL", "position": "FWD", "x_points": 5.37, "captain_ev": 10.73, "ceiling": 13.56, "price": 6.0, "ownership_pct": 5.2, "value": 0.895, "bonus": 1.22, "defcon": 0.0, "p_defcon": 0.001, "cs_points": 0.0, "kickoff": "2026-10-10T14:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "9": 7585, "2": 19143, "13": 3893, "1": 3652, "4": 259, "17": 892, "6": 684, "7": 1654, "-1": 241, "16": 419, "8": 4404, "11": 247, "5": 1343, "12": 1338, "10": 91, "-2": 46, "21": 143, "15": 74, "14": 22, "0": 3657, "3": 73, "20": 85, "25": 18, "19": 12, "22": 1, "24": 12, "18": 4, "23": 4, "29": 3, "28": 1 }, "p10": 1, "median": 2, "p90": 13, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.1452, "p_blank": 0.5348, "start_prob": 0.965534868650664, "player_id": 569, "ep_next": 2.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 4, "tier": "Mid" }, { "name": "Richards", "team": "CRY", "position": "DEF", "x_points": 4.33, "captain_ev": 8.66, "ceiling": 10.73, "price": 4.9, "ownership_pct": 0.6, "value": 0.884, "bonus": 0.43, "defcon": 0.84, "p_defcon": 0.422, "cs_points": 1.11, "kickoff": "2026-10-11T13:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "4": 6069, "10": 2323, "0": 2693, "2": 9026, "1": 8409, "11": 985, "3": 6256, "9": 2665, "17": 232, "5": 1144, "7": 3090, "16": 113, "6": 1698, "15": 395, "12": 285, "8": 3744, "-1": 268, "21": 25, "13": 147, "-2": 124, "14": 208, "19": 13, "23": 21, "-3": 18, "18": 28, "20": 15, "22": 4, "-4": 2 }, "p10": 1, "median": 3, "p90": 9, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.0959, "p_blank": 0.4108, "start_prob": 0.9920805410635031, "player_id": 202, "ep_next": 5.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 5, "tier": "Budget" }, { "name": "E.Le Fée", "team": "SUN", "position": "MID", "x_points": 5.0, "captain_ev": 9.99, "ceiling": 12.95, "price": 5.7, "ownership_pct": 3.3, "value": 0.877, "bonus": 0.67, "defcon": 0.02, "p_defcon": 0.009, "cs_points": 0.24, "kickoff": "2026-10-10T14:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "8": 2143, "3": 6246, "2": 19254, "14": 644, "13": 1031, "7": 1326, "18": 240, "9": 3458, "5": 2750, "12": 514, "1": 2966, "19": 92, "15": 1034, "17": 89, "4": 694, "16": 436, "6": 2381, "10": 2513, "11": 1074, "0": 582, "-1": 223, "23": 28, "-2": 34, "25": 19, "20": 126, "21": 61, "28": 2, "26": 10, "24": 11, "29": 1, "22": 12, "31": 1, "-3": 2, "27": 2, "33": 1 }, "p10": 2, "median": 3, "p90": 11, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.1588, "p_blank": 0.4612, "start_prob": 0.9938502525576923, "player_id": 542, "ep_next": 2.5, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 6, "tier": "Mid" }, { "name": "Diop", "team": "IPS", "position": "DEF", "x_points": 3.47, "captain_ev": 6.94, "ceiling": 9.49, "price": 4.0, "ownership_pct": 12.4, "value": 0.868, "bonus": 0.32, "defcon": 0.56, "p_defcon": 0.278, "cs_points": 0.94, "kickoff": "2026-10-10T14:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "4": 4207, "7": 3290, "2": 10431, "9": 1885, "6": 2050, "8": 3145, "1": 11400, "3": 4554, "10": 1195, "0": 4933, "-2": 171, "5": 1022, "15": 260, "18": 14, "-1": 410, "16": 47, "17": 139, "14": 141, "12": 198, "11": 376, "13": 72, "-3": 42, "-4": 2, "19": 5, "21": 5, "22": 1, "23": 3, "20": 2 }, "p10": 0, "median": 2, "p90": 8, "mode": 1, "p_haul": 0.0492, "p_blank": 0.5478, "start_prob": 0.9717288588803265, "player_id": 259, "ep_next": 2.5, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 7, "tier": "Budget" }, { "name": "De Cuyper", "team": "BHA", "position": "DEF", "x_points": 4.33, "captain_ev": 8.66, "ceiling": 11.75, "price": 5.0, "ownership_pct": 29.2, "value": 0.866, "bonus": 0.5, "defcon": 0.04, "p_defcon": 0.02, "cs_points": 1.13, "kickoff": "2026-10-10T14:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "1": 10498, "2": 10020, "8": 3262, "15": 982, "7": 4204, "14": 468, "6": 3823, "11": 923, "12": 1219, "5": 2858, "9": 1298, "4": 2556, "10": 847, "0": 4855, "-2": 143, "3": 818, "-1": 305, "13": 271, "23": 8, "17": 155, "18": 209, "-3": 26, "16": 82, "21": 80, "20": 41, "19": 20, "24": 19, "26": 3, "22": 3, "-4": 1, "-5": 1, "27": 2 }, "p10": 0, "median": 2, "p90": 10, "mode": 1, "p_haul": 0.1066, "p_blank": 0.517, "start_prob": 0.9796925606041781, "player_id": 115, "ep_next": 8.5, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 8, "tier": "Budget" }, { "name": "Calafiori", "team": "ARS", "position": "DEF", "x_points": 5.08, "captain_ev": 10.16, "ceiling": 12.38, "price": 5.9, "ownership_pct": 50.9, "value": 0.861, "bonus": 0.24, "defcon": 0.05, "p_defcon": 0.023, "cs_points": 2.01, "kickoff": "2026-10-10T11:30:00+00:00", "distribution": { "6": 16707, "2": 10126, "5": 2899, "1": 7393, "7": 1489, "4": 685, "8": 2004, "0": 1923, "11": 555, "15": 1432, "14": 1094, "-1": 185, "9": 678, "3": 392, "12": 402, "10": 553, "-2": 91, "16": 108, "18": 124, "21": 178, "19": 31, "20": 71, "13": 649, "17": 161, "27": 9, "22": 8, "23": 21, "29": 2, "-3": 13, "24": 14, "26": 3 }, "p10": 1, "median": 6, "p90": 10, "mode": 6, "p_haul": 0.1083, "p_blank": 0.3946, "start_prob": 0.9841168393396513, "player_id": 8, "ep_next": 3.5, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 9, "tier": "Mid" }, { "name": "O'Shea", "team": "IPS", "position": "DEF", "x_points": 3.32, "captain_ev": 6.63, "ceiling": 8.43, "price": 4.0, "ownership_pct": 2.6, "value": 0.83, "bonus": 0.12, "defcon": 0.65, "p_defcon": 0.324, "cs_points": 0.94, "kickoff": "2026-10-10T14:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "2": 10091, "6": 5116, "3": 5475, "8": 2839, "4": 5014, "0": 4547, "7": 2220, "1": 10577, "11": 247, "13": 100, "-1": 390, "15": 112, "-2": 127, "16": 27, "9": 892, "5": 1439, "10": 347, "-4": 2, "14": 120, "12": 225, "-3": 29, "17": 54, "18": 3, "19": 2, "20": 4, "21": 1 }, "p10": 0, "median": 2, "p90": 7, "mode": 1, "p_haul": 0.0248, "p_blank": 0.5153, "start_prob": 0.976418594339928, "player_id": 304, "ep_next": 1.5, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 10, "tier": "Budget" }, { "name": "Saka", "team": "ARS", "position": "MID", "x_points": 7.96, "captain_ev": 15.93, "ceiling": 17.83, "price": 9.6, "ownership_pct": 15.4, "value": 0.829, "bonus": 1.32, "defcon": 0.09, "p_defcon": 0.046, "cs_points": 0.51, "kickoff": "2026-10-10T11:30:00+00:00", "distribution": { "9": 3290, "10": 4998, "2": 8192, "3": 8058, "6": 2985, "8": 1591, "12": 939, "7": 1180, "16": 2122, "11": 3005, "15": 2103, "14": 1642, "17": 362, "5": 1683, "21": 538, "19": 603, "26": 118, "1": 1333, "13": 1715, "18": 664, "28": 32, "20": 539, "24": 171, "4": 648, "0": 882, "22": 112, "23": 169, "33": 9, "-1": 99, "25": 89, "30": 26, "29": 26, "32": 2, "27": 36, "38": 1, "-2": 17, "31": 11, "-3": 1, "35": 3, "47": 1, "34": 4, "36": 1 }, "p10": 2, "median": 7, "p90": 16, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.4008, "p_blank": 0.2105, "start_prob": 0.9867714065809352, "player_id": 12, "ep_next": 5.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 11, "tier": "Premium" }, { "name": "Hall", "team": "NEW", "position": "DEF", "x_points": 4.33, "captain_ev": 8.67, "ceiling": 10.95, "price": 5.3, "ownership_pct": 18.8, "value": 0.817, "bonus": 0.64, "defcon": 0.58, "p_defcon": 0.292, "cs_points": 1.1, "kickoff": "2026-10-12T19:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "11": 1468, "1": 8819, "5": 1379, "0": 4611, "4": 4832, "2": 8408, "10": 1580, "12": 852, "9": 2902, "8": 3650, "7": 2940, "3": 4437, "6": 2400, "18": 36, "15": 263, "-1": 246, "14": 478, "17": 125, "13": 326, "21": 5, "-2": 115, "16": 72, "20": 15, "-3": 24, "22": 2, "23": 3, "19": 8, "26": 1, "24": 2, "25": 1 }, "p10": 1, "median": 3, "p90": 10, "mode": 1, "p_haul": 0.1047, "p_blank": 0.4445, "start_prob": 0.9858865508338406, "player_id": 449, "ep_next": 6.5, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 12, "tier": "Budget" }, { "name": "Tavernier", "team": "BOU", "position": "MID", "x_points": 4.96, "captain_ev": 9.93, "ceiling": 12.65, "price": 6.1, "ownership_pct": 7.0, "value": 0.813, "bonus": 0.71, "defcon": 0.23, "p_defcon": 0.115, "cs_points": 0.14, "kickoff": "2026-10-10T14:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "11": 1226, "2": 19704, "4": 3044, "1": 3080, "13": 872, "5": 2668, "9": 2861, "3": 4214, "10": 3413, "8": 1640, "6": 1810, "12": 953, "14": 541, "23": 18, "15": 926, "17": 174, "0": 454, "-1": 250, "7": 1399, "16": 291, "21": 46, "19": 47, "20": 108, "18": 191, "25": 13, "-2": 29, "22": 17, "28": 1, "27": 1, "30": 1, "24": 4, "31": 2, "26": 2 }, "p10": 2, "median": 3, "p90": 11, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.1769, "p_blank": 0.4703, "start_prob": 0.9920805410635031, "player_id": 68, "ep_next": 5.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 13, "tier": "Mid" }, { "name": "Khalaili", "team": "CRY", "position": "DEF", "x_points": 4.04, "captain_ev": 8.08, "ceiling": 11.17, "price": 5.0, "ownership_pct": 0.3, "value": 0.808, "bonus": 0.3, "defcon": 0.66, "p_defcon": 0.328, "cs_points": 0.95, "kickoff": "2026-10-11T13:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "4": 4543, "8": 3136, "1": 7850, "2": 7128, "10": 1134, "7": 3424, "6": 3472, "3": 4338, "15": 624, "9": 2036, "5": 1260, "11": 495, "14": 341, "16": 166, "0": 8331, "-1": 223, "17": 436, "20": 46, "-2": 102, "19": 39, "12": 381, "-3": 26, "13": 281, "18": 61, "21": 55, "24": 7, "23": 37, "22": 12, "26": 4, "25": 5, "27": 4, "28": 1, "-4": 1, "29": 1 }, "p10": 0, "median": 3, "p90": 9, "mode": 0, "p_haul": 0.0826, "p_blank": 0.4732, "start_prob": 0.8494710955137623, "player_id": 588, "ep_next": 6.5, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 14, "tier": "Budget" }, { "name": "Botman", "team": "NEW", "position": "DEF", "x_points": 3.96, "captain_ev": 7.92, "ceiling": 9.54, "price": 5.0, "ownership_pct": 0.7, "value": 0.792, "bonus": 0.14, "defcon": 0.91, "p_defcon": 0.456, "cs_points": 1.1, "kickoff": "2026-10-12T19:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "6": 4991, "0": 4429, "2": 7879, "8": 4773, "3": 6549, "4": 6776, "1": 7435, "9": 1372, "10": 472, "-1": 202, "14": 259, "5": 1199, "-2": 111, "7": 2200, "17": 171, "13": 181, "12": 276, "18": 25, "11": 328, "21": 11, "16": 118, "15": 194, "20": 8, "19": 11, "23": 8, "-3": 13, "-4": 3, "24": 1, "26": 1, "22": 3, "27": 1 }, "p10": 1, "median": 3, "p90": 8, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.0414, "p_blank": 0.4014, "start_prob": 0.9832319835925567, "player_id": 447, "ep_next": 3.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 15, "tier": "Budget" }, { "name": "Thiaw", "team": "NEW", "position": "DEF", "x_points": 3.92, "captain_ev": 7.84, "ceiling": 10.21, "price": 5.0, "ownership_pct": 2.2, "value": 0.784, "bonus": 0.13, "defcon": 0.55, "p_defcon": 0.274, "cs_points": 1.1, "kickoff": "2026-10-12T19:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "5": 1359, "1": 9568, "0": 4493, "2": 9596, "6": 7315, "8": 3794, "14": 373, "15": 525, "3": 3881, "7": 1913, "4": 3906, "12": 255, "-2": 118, "9": 884, "17": 230, "-1": 315, "16": 180, "10": 561, "11": 285, "13": 253, "20": 19, "21": 50, "23": 12, "24": 4, "18": 36, "-3": 34, "19": 26, "27": 4, "-4": 3, "22": 4, "26": 3, "25": 1 }, "p10": 1, "median": 3, "p90": 8, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.0564, "p_blank": 0.4825, "start_prob": 0.9938502525576923, "player_id": 445, "ep_next": 3.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 16, "tier": "Budget" }, { "name": "Lammens", "team": "MUN", "position": "GK", "x_points": 3.84, "captain_ev": 7.67, "ceiling": 9.36, "price": 4.9, "ownership_pct": 9.7, "value": 0.784, "bonus": 0.47, "defcon": 0.0, "p_defcon": 0.0, "cs_points": 1.23, "kickoff": "2026-10-10T16:30:00+00:00", "distribution": { "2": 14054, "10": 2613, "6": 2668, "3": 8733, "11": 631, "7": 2538, "1": 7894, "8": 3235, "4": 1402, "0": 1904, "9": 2956, "5": 950, "-1": 275, "-2": 90, "-3": 19, "12": 35, "13": 2, "-4": 1 }, "p10": 1, "median": 3, "p90": 9, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.0656, "p_blank": 0.4847, "start_prob": 0.9929653968105977, "player_id": 412, "ep_next": 3.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 17, "tier": "Budget" }, { "name": "Buendía", "team": "AVL", "position": "MID", "x_points": 4.62, "captain_ev": 9.24, "ceiling": 12.39, "price": 5.9, "ownership_pct": 1.1, "value": 0.783, "bonus": 0.54, "defcon": 0.11, "p_defcon": 0.057, "cs_points": 0.24, "kickoff": "2026-10-10T14:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "8": 2650, "5": 2051, "9": 3363, "7": 1711, "1": 3741, "3": 6536, "2": 18453, "6": 1358, "12": 453, "17": 112, "11": 843, "-1": 230, "4": 1521, "15": 958, "10": 1962, "22": 18, "0": 1921, "18": 157, "14": 609, "16": 442, "13": 545, "19": 59, "21": 47, "-2": 43, "20": 158, "24": 11, "23": 17, "31": 1, "-3": 2, "26": 2, "25": 24, "27": 1, "30": 1 }, "p10": 1, "median": 3, "p90": 10, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.1284, "p_blank": 0.4878, "start_prob": 0.9832319835925567, "player_id": 41, "ep_next": 7.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 18, "tier": "Mid" }, { "name": "Wissa", "team": "NEW", "position": "FWD", "x_points": 4.85, "captain_ev": 9.71, "ceiling": 12.42, "price": 6.2, "ownership_pct": 19.0, "value": 0.782, "bonus": 1.03, "defcon": 0.01, "p_defcon": 0.004, "cs_points": 0.0, "kickoff": "2026-10-12T19:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "2": 21212, "12": 1135, "8": 4642, "13": 2974, "5": 1520, "9": 6081, "7": 1906, "1": 3857, "17": 550, "4": 377, "16": 338, "21": 90, "11": 337, "6": 812, "-1": 234, "10": 125, "19": 23, "3": 60, "-2": 39, "15": 73, "0": 3512, "20": 60, "14": 24, "-3": 3, "24": 5, "25": 6, "18": 2, "28": 2, "22": 1 }, "p10": 1, "median": 2, "p90": 12, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.1149, "p_blank": 0.5771, "start_prob": 0.9681894358919478, "player_id": 464, "ep_next": 1.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 19, "tier": "Mid" }, { "name": "Leno", "team": "FUL", "position": "GK", "x_points": 3.49, "captain_ev": 6.98, "ceiling": 9.44, "price": 4.5, "ownership_pct": 3.6, "value": 0.776, "bonus": 0.53, "defcon": 0.0, "p_defcon": 0.0, "cs_points": 1.02, "kickoff": "2026-10-10T14:00:00+00:00", "distribution": { "8": 2768, "3": 7866, "1": 8530, "10": 2751, "2": 14101, "6": 1440, "0": 4419, "11": 757, "-1": 355, "9": 2856, "5": 847, "7": 1730, "4": 1402, "-2": 111, "12": 40, "-3": 21, "-4": 5, "13": 1 }, "p10": 1, "median": 2, "p90": 9, "mode": 2, "p_haul": 0.071, "p_blank": 0.5508, "start_prob": 0.9982745312931655, "player_id": 250, "ep_next": 6.0, "fixtures": 1, "rank": 20, "tier": "Budget" } ], "source": "https://evmax.ai", "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "license_text": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with attribution to evmax (https://evmax.ai)" }