{ "competition": "fifa_world_cup_fantasy", "round": 5, "article": "blowout-transfers", "title": "Blowout-fixture targets — Round 5", "generated_at": "2026-07-03T13:38:41.827646+00:00", "sims": 50000, "methodology": "Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy points table.", "entries": [ { "name": "Mbappé", "team": "France", "position": "FWD", "x_points": 6.14, "captain_ev": 12.29, "ceiling": 12.95, "ceiling_ratio": 2.108, "price": 10.5, "ownership_pct": 59.2, "value": 0.585, "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00", "rank": 1 }, { "name": "Raphinha", "team": "Brazil", "position": "MID", "x_points": 4.98, "captain_ev": 9.96, "ceiling": 9.5, "ceiling_ratio": 1.907, "price": 8.2, "ownership_pct": 10.3, "value": 0.607, "kickoff": "2026-07-05T20:00:00+00:00", "rank": 2 }, { "name": "Vinicius Jr", "team": "Brazil", "position": "MID", "x_points": 4.87, "captain_ev": 9.74, "ceiling": 7.73, "ceiling_ratio": 1.587, "price": 10, "ownership_pct": 34.5, "value": 0.487, "kickoff": "2026-07-05T20:00:00+00:00", "rank": 3 }, { "name": "E. Haaland", "team": "Norway", "position": "FWD", "x_points": 4.87, "captain_ev": 9.75, "ceiling": 7.62, "ceiling_ratio": 1.563, "price": 10.5, "ownership_pct": 28.6, "value": 0.464, "kickoff": "2026-07-05T20:00:00+00:00", "rank": 4 }, { "name": "Michael Olise", "team": "France", "position": "MID", "x_points": 4.86, "captain_ev": 9.72, "ceiling": 7.9, "ceiling_ratio": 1.625, "price": 9.5, "ownership_pct": 34.1, "value": 0.512, "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00", "rank": 5 }, { "name": "Matheus Cunha", "team": "Brazil", "position": "FWD", "x_points": 4.81, "captain_ev": 9.63, "ceiling": 8.09, "ceiling_ratio": 1.682, "price": 7.3, "ownership_pct": 4.4, "value": 0.659, "kickoff": "2026-07-05T20:00:00+00:00", "rank": 6 }, { "name": "Ousmane Dembele", "team": "France", "position": "MID", "x_points": 4.49, "captain_ev": 8.98, "ceiling": 9.56, "ceiling_ratio": 2.128, "price": 10, "ownership_pct": 22.9, "value": 0.449, "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00", "rank": 7 }, { "name": "Bradley Barcola", "team": "France", "position": "MID", "x_points": 4.42, "captain_ev": 8.84, "ceiling": 8.48, "ceiling_ratio": 1.918, "price": 8, "ownership_pct": 1.5, "value": 0.553, "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00", "rank": 8 }, { "name": "M. Ødegaard", "team": "Norway", "position": "MID", "x_points": 3.93, "captain_ev": 7.87, "ceiling": 3.32, "ceiling_ratio": 0.844, "price": 7.7, "ownership_pct": 3.9, "value": 0.511, "kickoff": "2026-07-05T20:00:00+00:00", "rank": 9 }, { "name": "Thuram", "team": "France", "position": "FWD", "x_points": 3.87, "captain_ev": 7.74, "ceiling": 7.61, "ceiling_ratio": 1.965, "price": 7.5, "ownership_pct": 0.4, "value": 0.516, "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00", "rank": 10 }, { "name": "Lucas Paqueta", "team": "Brazil", "position": "MID", "x_points": 3.71, "captain_ev": 7.42, "ceiling": 3.38, "ceiling_ratio": 0.91, "price": 6.5, "ownership_pct": 0.9, "value": 0.571, "kickoff": "2026-07-05T20:00:00+00:00", "rank": 11 }, { "name": "Bruno Guimaraes", "team": "Brazil", "position": "MID", "x_points": 3.69, "captain_ev": 7.38, "ceiling": 3.42, "ceiling_ratio": 0.927, "price": 6.8, "ownership_pct": 4, "value": 0.542, "kickoff": "2026-07-05T20:00:00+00:00", "rank": 12 }, { "name": "Casemiro", "team": "Brazil", "position": "MID", "x_points": 3.52, "captain_ev": 7.03, "ceiling": 3.25, "ceiling_ratio": 0.925, "price": 6.3, "ownership_pct": 1.6, "value": 0.558, "kickoff": "2026-07-05T20:00:00+00:00", "rank": 13 }, { "name": "Adrien Rabiot", "team": "France", "position": "MID", "x_points": 3.5, "captain_ev": 7.01, "ceiling": 8.63, "ceiling_ratio": 2.464, "price": 6.4, "ownership_pct": 0.5, "value": 0.547, "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00", "rank": 14 }, { "name": "Julio Enciso", "team": "Paraguay", "position": "MID", "x_points": 3.48, "captain_ev": 6.97, "ceiling": 3.23, "ceiling_ratio": 0.928, "price": 6.6, "ownership_pct": 0.4, "value": 0.528, "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00", "rank": 15 }, { "name": "Doué", "team": "France", "position": "MID", "x_points": 3.33, "captain_ev": 6.67, "ceiling": 2.66, "ceiling_ratio": 0.799, "price": 7.5, "ownership_pct": 3.1, "value": 0.445, "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00", "rank": 16 }, { "name": "Fredrik Aursnes", "team": "Norway", "position": "MID", "x_points": 3.28, "captain_ev": 6.56, "ceiling": 3.07, "ceiling_ratio": 0.938, "price": 6.5, "ownership_pct": 0.1, "value": 0.504, "kickoff": "2026-07-05T20:00:00+00:00", "rank": 17 }, { "name": "Diego Gomez", "team": "Paraguay", "position": "MID", "x_points": 3.16, "captain_ev": 6.33, "ceiling": 2.99, "ceiling_ratio": 0.946, "price": 6.8, "ownership_pct": 0.2, "value": 0.465, "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00", "rank": 18 }, { "name": "Andres Cubas", "team": "Paraguay", "position": "MID", "x_points": 3.11, "captain_ev": 6.22, "ceiling": 2.96, "ceiling_ratio": 0.953, "price": 4.7, "ownership_pct": 0, "value": 0.661, "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00", "rank": 19 }, { "name": "Antonio Nusa", "team": "Norway", "position": "MID", "x_points": 3.1, "captain_ev": 6.2, "ceiling": 2.64, "ceiling_ratio": 0.85, "price": 6.1, "ownership_pct": 1.8, "value": 0.509, "kickoff": "2026-07-05T20:00:00+00:00", "rank": 20 } ], "source": "https://evmax.ai", "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "license_text": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with attribution to evmax (https://evmax.ai)" }