{
  "competition": "fifa_world_cup_fantasy",
  "round": 5,
  "article": "fixtures",
  "title": "Fixture guide — clean sheets, blowouts and games to avoid — Round 5",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-04T10:46:49.007915+00:00",
  "sims": 50000,
  "methodology": "Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy points table.",
  "entries": [
    {
      "name": "France",
      "team": "vs Paraguay",
      "position": "—",
      "p_clean_sheet": 0.59,
      "exp_goals_for": 2.5,
      "exp_goals_against": 0.53,
      "env": "blowout",
      "top_def": "Dayot Upamecano (5.0)",
      "top_gk": "Mike Maignan (5.0)",
      "rank": 1
    },
    {
      "name": "Argentina",
      "team": "vs Egypt",
      "position": "—",
      "p_clean_sheet": 0.549,
      "exp_goals_for": 2.0,
      "exp_goals_against": 0.6,
      "env": "balanced",
      "top_def": "Cristian Romero (3.8)",
      "top_gk": "Emiliano Martinez (4.8)",
      "rank": 2
    },
    {
      "name": "Morocco",
      "team": "vs Canada",
      "position": "—",
      "p_clean_sheet": 0.43,
      "exp_goals_for": 1.57,
      "exp_goals_against": 0.84,
      "env": "balanced",
      "top_def": "Achraf Hakimi (5.0)",
      "top_gk": "Yassine 'Bono' Bounou (4.2)",
      "rank": 3
    },
    {
      "name": "Colombia",
      "team": "vs Switzerland",
      "position": "—",
      "p_clean_sheet": 0.359,
      "exp_goals_for": 1.31,
      "exp_goals_against": 1.03,
      "env": "balanced",
      "top_def": "Jhon Lucumi (3.5)",
      "top_gk": "Vargas (3.4)",
      "rank": 4
    },
    {
      "name": "England",
      "team": "vs Mexico",
      "position": "—",
      "p_clean_sheet": 0.347,
      "exp_goals_for": 1.23,
      "exp_goals_against": 1.07,
      "env": "balanced",
      "top_def": "Ezri Konsa (3.2)",
      "top_gk": "Jordan Pickford (3.8)",
      "rank": 5
    },
    {
      "name": "Brazil",
      "team": "vs Norway",
      "position": "—",
      "p_clean_sheet": 0.337,
      "exp_goals_for": 1.77,
      "exp_goals_against": 1.09,
      "env": "balanced",
      "top_def": "Gabriel Magalhães (3.5)",
      "top_gk": "Alisson Becker (3.8)",
      "rank": 6
    },
    {
      "name": "Spain",
      "team": "vs Portugal",
      "position": "—",
      "p_clean_sheet": 0.336,
      "exp_goals_for": 1.65,
      "exp_goals_against": 1.08,
      "env": "balanced",
      "top_def": "M. Llorente (3.2)",
      "top_gk": "Unai Simon (3.8)",
      "rank": 7
    },
    {
      "name": "Mexico",
      "team": "vs England",
      "position": "—",
      "p_clean_sheet": 0.293,
      "exp_goals_for": 1.07,
      "exp_goals_against": 1.23,
      "env": "balanced",
      "top_def": "Cesar Montes (2.7)",
      "top_gk": "Rangel (3.1)",
      "rank": 8
    },
    {
      "name": "Switzerland",
      "team": "vs Colombia",
      "position": "—",
      "p_clean_sheet": 0.27,
      "exp_goals_for": 1.03,
      "exp_goals_against": 1.31,
      "env": "balanced",
      "top_def": "R. Rodriguez (2.8)",
      "top_gk": "Gregor Kobel (3.1)",
      "rank": 9
    },
    {
      "name": "Belgium",
      "team": "vs United States",
      "position": "—",
      "p_clean_sheet": 0.239,
      "exp_goals_for": 1.42,
      "exp_goals_against": 1.43,
      "env": "balanced",
      "top_def": "Maxim De Cuyper (2.9)",
      "top_gk": "Thibaut Courtois (3.2)",
      "rank": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "United States",
      "team": "vs Belgium",
      "position": "—",
      "p_clean_sheet": 0.238,
      "exp_goals_for": 1.43,
      "exp_goals_against": 1.42,
      "env": "balanced",
      "top_def": "Chris Richards (2.5)",
      "top_gk": "Matt Freese (2.8)",
      "rank": 11
    },
    {
      "name": "Canada",
      "team": "vs Morocco",
      "position": "—",
      "p_clean_sheet": 0.209,
      "exp_goals_for": 0.84,
      "exp_goals_against": 1.57,
      "env": "balanced",
      "top_def": "Richie Laryea (2.2)",
      "top_gk": "Maxime Crepeau (3.0)",
      "rank": 12
    },
    {
      "name": "Portugal",
      "team": "vs Spain",
      "position": "—",
      "p_clean_sheet": 0.195,
      "exp_goals_for": 1.08,
      "exp_goals_against": 1.65,
      "env": "balanced",
      "top_def": "Nuno Mendes (2.4)",
      "top_gk": "Diogo Costa (2.9)",
      "rank": 13
    },
    {
      "name": "Norway",
      "team": "vs Brazil",
      "position": "—",
      "p_clean_sheet": 0.167,
      "exp_goals_for": 1.09,
      "exp_goals_against": 1.77,
      "env": "balanced",
      "top_def": "David Møller Wolfe (1.6)",
      "top_gk": "Ørjan Nyland (2.2)",
      "rank": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "Egypt",
      "team": "vs Argentina",
      "position": "—",
      "p_clean_sheet": 0.137,
      "exp_goals_for": 0.6,
      "exp_goals_against": 2.0,
      "env": "balanced",
      "top_def": "Mohamed Hany (1.5)",
      "top_gk": "Mostafa Oufa Shobeir (2.5)",
      "rank": 15
    },
    {
      "name": "Paraguay",
      "team": "vs France",
      "position": "—",
      "p_clean_sheet": 0.082,
      "exp_goals_for": 0.53,
      "exp_goals_against": 2.5,
      "env": "blowout",
      "top_def": "Gustavo Gomez (0.8)",
      "top_gk": "Orlando Gill (1.9)",
      "rank": 16
    }
  ],
  "source": "https://evmax.ai",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "license_text": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with attribution to evmax (https://evmax.ai)"
}