{
  "competition": "fifa_world_cup_fantasy",
  "round": 5,
  "article": "risky",
  "title": "Risky chances — highest ceilings — Round 5",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-03T13:38:41.827646+00:00",
  "sims": 50000,
  "methodology": "Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy points table.",
  "entries": [
    {
      "name": "Ousmane Dembele",
      "team": "France",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 4.49,
      "captain_ev": 8.98,
      "ceiling": 9.56,
      "ceiling_ratio": 2.128,
      "price": 10,
      "ownership_pct": 22.9,
      "value": 0.449,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00",
      "rank": 1
    },
    {
      "name": "Raphinha",
      "team": "Brazil",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 4.98,
      "captain_ev": 9.96,
      "ceiling": 9.5,
      "ceiling_ratio": 1.907,
      "price": 8.2,
      "ownership_pct": 10.3,
      "value": 0.607,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-05T20:00:00+00:00",
      "rank": 2
    },
    {
      "name": "Kevin De Bruyne",
      "team": "Belgium",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 4.3,
      "captain_ev": 8.6,
      "ceiling": 9.38,
      "ceiling_ratio": 2.182,
      "price": 7.5,
      "ownership_pct": 5.7,
      "value": 0.573,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-07T00:00:00+00:00",
      "rank": 3
    },
    {
      "name": "Leandro Trossard",
      "team": "Belgium",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 4.12,
      "captain_ev": 8.23,
      "ceiling": 9.14,
      "ceiling_ratio": 2.221,
      "price": 6.6,
      "ownership_pct": 3.4,
      "value": 0.624,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-07T00:00:00+00:00",
      "rank": 4
    },
    {
      "name": "Nico Williams",
      "team": "Spain",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 4.31,
      "captain_ev": 8.63,
      "ceiling": 9.09,
      "ceiling_ratio": 2.107,
      "price": 7.8,
      "ownership_pct": 1.9,
      "value": 0.553,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-06T19:00:00+00:00",
      "rank": 5
    },
    {
      "name": "Ismael Saibari",
      "team": "Morocco",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 5.54,
      "captain_ev": 11.08,
      "ceiling": 9.06,
      "ceiling_ratio": 1.635,
      "price": 6.8,
      "ownership_pct": 14.9,
      "value": 0.815,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-04T17:00:00+00:00",
      "rank": 6
    },
    {
      "name": "Christian Pulisic",
      "team": "United States",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 4.43,
      "captain_ev": 8.85,
      "ceiling": 9.04,
      "ceiling_ratio": 2.043,
      "price": 7,
      "ownership_pct": 4.5,
      "value": 0.632,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-07T00:00:00+00:00",
      "rank": 7
    },
    {
      "name": "Giovanni Reyna",
      "team": "United States",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 3.92,
      "captain_ev": 7.85,
      "ceiling": 8.91,
      "ceiling_ratio": 2.271,
      "price": 5.5,
      "ownership_pct": 0.4,
      "value": 0.713,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-07T00:00:00+00:00",
      "rank": 8
    },
    {
      "name": "Dani Olmo",
      "team": "Spain",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 3.7,
      "captain_ev": 7.4,
      "ceiling": 8.8,
      "ceiling_ratio": 2.38,
      "price": 7.7,
      "ownership_pct": 1.9,
      "value": 0.48,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-06T19:00:00+00:00",
      "rank": 9
    },
    {
      "name": "Adrien Rabiot",
      "team": "France",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 3.5,
      "captain_ev": 7.01,
      "ceiling": 8.63,
      "ceiling_ratio": 2.464,
      "price": 6.4,
      "ownership_pct": 0.5,
      "value": 0.547,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00",
      "rank": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "Bradley Barcola",
      "team": "France",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 4.42,
      "captain_ev": 8.84,
      "ceiling": 8.48,
      "ceiling_ratio": 1.918,
      "price": 8,
      "ownership_pct": 1.5,
      "value": 0.553,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00",
      "rank": 11
    },
    {
      "name": "Jonathan David",
      "team": "Canada",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 4.62,
      "captain_ev": 9.24,
      "ceiling": 8.39,
      "ceiling_ratio": 1.815,
      "price": 7,
      "ownership_pct": 2.4,
      "value": 0.66,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-04T17:00:00+00:00",
      "rank": 12
    },
    {
      "name": "Folarin Balogun",
      "team": "United States",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 4.69,
      "captain_ev": 9.38,
      "ceiling": 8.22,
      "ceiling_ratio": 1.754,
      "price": 6,
      "ownership_pct": 3.9,
      "value": 0.781,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-07T00:00:00+00:00",
      "rank": 13
    },
    {
      "name": "Matheus Cunha",
      "team": "Brazil",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 4.81,
      "captain_ev": 9.63,
      "ceiling": 8.09,
      "ceiling_ratio": 1.682,
      "price": 7.3,
      "ownership_pct": 4.4,
      "value": 0.659,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-05T20:00:00+00:00",
      "rank": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "Johan Manzambi",
      "team": "Switzerland",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 3.04,
      "captain_ev": 6.07,
      "ceiling": 8.08,
      "ceiling_ratio": 2.66,
      "price": 5.6,
      "ownership_pct": 3.4,
      "value": 0.542,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-07T20:00:00+00:00",
      "rank": 15
    },
    {
      "name": "Dan Ndoye",
      "team": "Switzerland",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 3.78,
      "captain_ev": 7.56,
      "ceiling": 7.94,
      "ceiling_ratio": 2.099,
      "price": 6.8,
      "ownership_pct": 0.3,
      "value": 0.556,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-07T20:00:00+00:00",
      "rank": 16
    },
    {
      "name": "Thuram",
      "team": "France",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 3.87,
      "captain_ev": 7.74,
      "ceiling": 7.61,
      "ceiling_ratio": 1.965,
      "price": 7.5,
      "ownership_pct": 0.4,
      "value": 0.516,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00",
      "rank": 17
    },
    {
      "name": "Oyarzabal",
      "team": "Spain",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 4.24,
      "captain_ev": 8.48,
      "ceiling": 7.52,
      "ceiling_ratio": 1.775,
      "price": 8.1,
      "ownership_pct": 10.8,
      "value": 0.523,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-06T19:00:00+00:00",
      "rank": 18
    },
    {
      "name": "Jiménez",
      "team": "Mexico",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 3.65,
      "captain_ev": 7.29,
      "ceiling": 7.33,
      "ceiling_ratio": 2.011,
      "price": 7,
      "ownership_pct": 2.4,
      "value": 0.521,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-06T00:00:00+00:00",
      "rank": 19
    },
    {
      "name": "Lukaku",
      "team": "Belgium",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 3.9,
      "captain_ev": 7.79,
      "ceiling": 7.28,
      "ceiling_ratio": 1.868,
      "price": 7.4,
      "ownership_pct": 1.5,
      "value": 0.527,
      "kickoff": "2026-07-07T00:00:00+00:00",
      "rank": 20
    }
  ],
  "source": "https://evmax.ai",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "license_text": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with attribution to evmax (https://evmax.ai)"
}