# B.Fernandes takes the armband in Gameweek 1

> B.Fernandes leads on captain EV at 14.84, with a 16.82 ceiling underneath it and Haaland (12.31) the alternative.

By the evmax model · 4 August 2026 · https://evmax.ai/fpl/gw1/captains/

B.Fernandes is the captain pick this gameweek: 14.84 captain EV, doubled off an xPts projection of 7.42, with a 16.82 ceiling — his 85th-percentile score across the simulations — which the armband turns into 33.64. He is a £12.0m midfielder at MUN, owned by 48.7% of the game.

> The armband is the only decision you make twice — every other pick scores once, so a captain who is merely fine costs you the week silently.

Haaland is the alternative at 12.31 captain EV and a 14.67 ceiling. He kicks off after B.Fernandes though, so as a vice he leaves you waiting — the safety net only resolves late in the gameweek.

**Bottom line:** Captain B.Fernandes — 14.84 EV is the best on the board, and 33.64 if the ceiling lands. Vice it with Haaland.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | Captain EV | xPts | Ceiling | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | B.Fernandes | MUN | 14.84 | 7.42 | 16.82 | 12.0 | 48.7% |
| 2 | Haaland | MCI | 12.31 | 6.15 | 14.67 | 15.5 | 75.2% |
| 3 | Thiago | BRE | 11.24 | 5.62 | 13.73 | 8.0 | 16.0% |
| 4 | Watkins | AVL | 10.39 | 5.20 | 13.67 | 8.0 | 12.2% |
| 5 | Ndiaye | EVE | 10.07 | 5.04 | 14.90 | 6.0 | 20.0% |
| 6 | E.Le Fée | SUN | 9.91 | 4.95 | 13.36 | 6.0 | 9.9% |
| 7 | Gibbs-White | NFO | 9.84 | 4.92 | 13.71 | 8.0 | 12.3% |
| 8 | Saka | ARS | 9.78 | 4.89 | 15.64 | 9.5 | 10.7% |
| 9 | Senesi | TOT | 8.89 | 4.45 | 10.68 | 6.0 | 11.3% |
| 10 | Virgil | LIV | 8.74 | 4.37 | 10.86 | 6.5 | 15.8% |
| 11 | Tarkowski | EVE | 8.63 | 4.31 | 10.71 | 6.0 | 9.9% |
| 12 | Rice | ARS | 8.50 | 4.25 | 10.24 | 7.5 | 21.9% |
| 13 | Szoboszlai | LIV | 8.50 | 4.25 | 11.59 | 7.0 | 47.3% |
| 14 | Calvert-Lewin | LEE | 8.24 | 4.12 | 12.02 | 6.0 | 17.7% |
| 15 | Gakpo | LIV | 8.24 | 4.12 | 12.79 | 7.0 | 3.3% |
| 16 | Enzo | CHE | 8.12 | 4.06 | 11.85 | 7.0 | 5.1% |
| 17 | Mbeumo | MUN | 8.11 | 4.06 | 12.66 | 8.0 | 13.6% |
| 18 | Gabriel | ARS | 7.93 | 3.97 | 11.12 | 8.0 | 25.4% |
| 19 | N.Williams | NFO | 7.90 | 3.95 | 10.60 | 5.0 | 13.3% |
| 20 | Welbeck | BHA | 7.73 | 3.86 | 12.28 | 6.0 | 2.9% |

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Method: Player scoring rates (goals, assists, defensive contributions) come from each player's own FPL data, not betting markets; match outcomes (de-vigged market odds, or a team-strength rating when a fixture isn't priced) drive 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/fpl/gw1/captains.json