# Anderson and Senesi lead the defensive-contribution race

> Anderson hits the 12-action midfield threshold in 60.2% of sims; Senesi clears 10 for defenders in 58.7%.

By the evmax model · 4 August 2026 · https://evmax.ai/fpl/gw1/defcon/

The defensive-contribution bonus — a 2-point award for hitting a position-specific action threshold — is a threshold, not a rate. Either a player records enough tackles, interceptions, and blocks in a match to earn it, or he doesn't. Anderson (MCI, MID) leads all midfielders by clearing the 12-action bar in 60.2% of simulations, worth 1.2 expected points from DefCon alone. That reliability is rare at his price (6.5m) and ownership (12.0%), making him the safest midfield bet for the bonus.

Among defenders, Senesi (TOT) is the standout: he hits the 10-action threshold in 58.7% of sims, the highest floor in the position. His 4.45 xPts with a 10.68 ceiling — his 85th-percentile outcome across 50,000 simulations — sits well above peers like Tarkowski (EVE, 4.31 xPts, 10.71 ceiling, 45.6% DefCon hit rate) and Lacroix (CRY, 3.47 xPts, 9.02 ceiling, 48.1% hit rate). Senesi's 58.7% reliability is a structural edge: he is not just a ceiling play, he is a floor play too.

> Senesi hits the DefCon threshold in 58.7% of sims — the highest floor in the position — while projecting 4.45 xPts with a 10.68 ceiling.

The gap between the top two and the rest widens quickly. Virgil (LIV, DEF) owns elite attacking upside (4.37 xPts, 10.86 ceiling) but only a 37.3% DefCon hit rate, making him a ceiling-dependent pick despite 15.8% ownership. Van Hecke (TOT, DEF) offers 3.74 xPts and 0.748 value per million but clears the threshold in just 30.9% of sims. The midfield tier below Anderson is thin: Scott (BOU, 35.2%), Ampadu (LEE, 38.6%), and Xhaka (SUN, 29.6%) all lag significantly.

**Bottom line:** Senesi is the best defender for DefCon reliability at 58.7%, while Anderson is the best midfielder at 60.2%. Both offer genuine floor-and-ceiling balance and should be prioritised over higher-ceiling, lower-reliability alternatives.

**Bottom line:** Senesi is the best defender for DefCon reliability at 58.7%, while Anderson is the best midfielder at 60.2%. Both offer genuine floor-and-ceiling balance and should be prioritised over higher-ceiling, lower-reliability alternatives.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | P(DefCon) | DefCon pts | xPts | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anderson | MCI | 0.60 | 1.20 | 3.65 | 6.5 | 12.0% |
| 2 | Senesi | TOT | 0.59 | 1.17 | 4.45 | 6.0 | 11.3% |
| 3 | Lacroix | CRY | 0.48 | 0.96 | 3.47 | 6.0 | 11.8% |
| 4 | Tarkowski | EVE | 0.46 | 0.91 | 4.31 | 6.0 | 9.9% |
| 5 | O'Shea | IPS | 0.42 | 0.84 | 3.66 | 4.0 | 1.2% |
| 6 | Ampadu | LEE | 0.39 | 0.77 | 2.92 | 5.5 | 1.3% |
| 7 | Wieffer | BHA | 0.38 | 0.76 | 2.71 | 5.0 | 0.3% |
| 8 | Keane | EVE | 0.38 | 0.76 | 3.13 | 5.0 | 1.5% |
| 9 | Virgil | LIV | 0.37 | 0.75 | 4.37 | 6.5 | 15.8% |
| 10 | Alderete | SUN | 0.37 | 0.74 | 3.22 | 5.0 | 1.2% |
| 11 | Richards | CRY | 0.36 | 0.72 | 3.02 | 5.0 | 0.8% |
| 12 | Scott | BOU | 0.35 | 0.70 | 3.14 | 6.0 | 1.6% |
| 13 | Ballard | SUN | 0.35 | 0.70 | 2.96 | 5.0 | 2.9% |
| 14 | Collins | BRE | 0.35 | 0.70 | 3.12 | 5.5 | 2.0% |
| 15 | Caicedo | CHE | 0.33 | 0.65 | 2.58 | 5.5 | 3.8% |
| 16 | Hill | BOU | 0.32 | 0.64 | 2.07 | 5.5 | 1.4% |
| 17 | Van Hecke | TOT | 0.31 | 0.62 | 3.74 | 5.0 | 8.2% |
| 18 | Struijk | BHA | 0.30 | 0.60 | 2.99 | 5.0 | 0.5% |
| 19 | Xhaka | SUN | 0.30 | 0.59 | 3.47 | 5.5 | 6.3% |
| 20 | Gomes | AVL | 0.29 | 0.58 | 2.14 | 5.5 | 0.3% |

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Method: Player scoring rates (goals, assists, defensive contributions) come from each player's own FPL data, not betting markets; match outcomes (de-vigged market odds, or a team-strength rating when a fixture isn't priced) drive 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/fpl/gw1/defcon.json