# O'Shea leads Gameweek 1 value chart

> IPS defender O'Shea tops efficiency rankings at 0.915 points per million—the pick to build around on any budget.

By the evmax model · 4 August 2026 · https://evmax.ai/fpl/gw1/efficiency/

O'Shea (IPS, DEF) is the overall value leader in Gameweek 1, delivering 0.915 points per million—a clear margin ahead of the field. At 4.0m, he projects 3.66 xPts with a 9.39 ceiling (his 85th-percentile sim), meaning he offers both a safe floor and genuine upside in a single slot. His points come primarily from clean-sheet probability (0.91 xPts) rather than bonus chasing, which makes him a stable defensive foundation.

> O'Shea's 0.915 value per million is the benchmark for Gameweek 1. Build around him.

Within the Budget tier (under 5.5m), O'Shea is the standout, but N.Williams (NFO, DEF) at 5.0m offers the second-best value at 0.79 points per million. He projects 3.95 xPts with a 10.6 ceiling, edging O'Shea on raw points but at a lower efficiency rate. For Mid-tier buyers (5.5m–8.0m), Ndiaye (EVE, MID) leads at 0.839 points per million. He projects 5.04 xPts with a 14.9 ceiling—a 9.86-point range that reflects genuine volatility—and carries 20.0% ownership, making him the consensus play in that bracket. The Premium tier (over 8.0m) contains only one entry: Thiago (BRE, FWD) at 8.0m, delivering 0.703 points per million with 5.62 xPts and a 13.73 ceiling. His 1.26 bonus expectation and explosive ceiling justify the price, though his value trails the mid-price options.

The data reveals a clear efficiency hierarchy: Budget defenders dominate the points-per-million rankings, while Mid-tier midfielders and forwards offer the widest ceiling ranges. O'Shea's combination of low price, high value, and safe floor makes him the anchor pick; Ndiaye provides the Mid-tier upside; Thiago is the only Premium option and carries the lowest per-million return of the three tiers.

**Bottom line:** Start with O'Shea at 4.0m for guaranteed value, pair him with Ndiaye (5.04 xPts, 14.9 ceiling) in the Mid tier, and avoid the Premium tier entirely—the value math does not justify Thiago's 8.0m price.

**Bottom line:** Start with O'Shea at 4.0m for guaranteed value, pair him with Ndiaye (5.04 xPts, 14.9 ceiling) in the Mid tier, and avoid the Premium tier entirely—the value math does not justify Thiago's 8.0m price.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | Pts/m | xPts | Price | Owned % | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O'Shea | IPS | 0.92 | 3.66 | 4.0 | 1.2% | 9.39 |
| 2 | Ndiaye | EVE | 0.84 | 5.04 | 6.0 | 20.0% | 14.90 |
| 3 | E.Le Fée | SUN | 0.83 | 4.95 | 6.0 | 9.9% | 13.36 |
| 4 | N.Williams | NFO | 0.79 | 3.95 | 5.0 | 13.3% | 10.60 |
| 5 | Van Hecke | TOT | 0.75 | 3.74 | 5.0 | 8.2% | 10.21 |
| 6 | Senesi | TOT | 0.74 | 4.45 | 6.0 | 11.3% | 10.68 |
| 7 | Tarkowski | EVE | 0.72 | 4.31 | 6.0 | 9.9% | 10.71 |
| 8 | Verbruggen | BHA | 0.72 | 3.22 | 4.5 | 16.8% | 8.05 |
| 9 | Dubravka | TOT | 0.71 | 2.85 | 4.0 | 24.8% | 6.98 |
| 10 | Thiago | BRE | 0.70 | 5.62 | 8.0 | 16.0% | 13.73 |
| 11 | Leno | FUL | 0.69 | 3.12 | 4.5 | 3.2% | 7.95 |
| 12 | Hume | SUN | 0.69 | 3.11 | 4.5 | 1.4% | 9.03 |
| 13 | Calvert-Lewin | LEE | 0.69 | 4.12 | 6.0 | 17.7% | 12.02 |
| 14 | Shaw | MUN | 0.68 | 3.04 | 4.5 | 23.3% | 7.09 |
| 15 | Kelleher | BRE | 0.67 | 3.37 | 5.0 | 5.5% | 8.50 |
| 16 | Virgil | LIV | 0.67 | 4.37 | 6.5 | 15.8% | 10.86 |
| 17 | Roefs | SUN | 0.67 | 3.34 | 5.0 | 5.7% | 8.56 |
| 18 | Thiaw | NEW | 0.67 | 3.33 | 5.0 | 2.4% | 9.76 |
| 19 | Kayode | BRE | 0.66 | 2.95 | 4.5 | 4.7% | 7.71 |
| 20 | Davis | IPS | 0.66 | 2.62 | 4.0 | 4.1% | 7.87 |

---
Method: Player scoring rates (goals, assists, defensive contributions) come from each player's own FPL data, not betting markets; match outcomes (de-vigged market odds, or a team-strength rating when a fixture isn't priced) drive 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/fpl/gw1/efficiency.json