# Senesi is the gameweek 2 DefCon banker

> He clears the 12-action threshold in 55% of simulations.

By the evmax model · 25 August 2026 · https://evmax.ai/fpl/gw2/defcon/

M.Sangaré (BRE) records at least 12 defensive actions in 55% of our simulations, worth 1.11 on its own. Defensive contribution is a threshold, not a rate: a player either clears the count in a given match or earns nothing, which is why we quote the hit rate rather than an average.Senesi is next at 54% against a 10-action threshold.

**Bottom line:** M.Sangaré is the most reliable route to the 2-point defensive bonus — 55% of simulations.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | P(DefCon) | DefCon pts | xPts | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | M.Sangaré | BRE | 55% | 1.11 | 6.05 | 5.5 | 6.0% |
| 2 | Senesi | TOT | 54% | 1.07 | 4.56 | 6.0 | 8.0% |
| 3 | Lacroix | CHE | 48% | 0.96 | 3.66 | 6.0 | 9.3% |
| 4 | Tarkowski | EVE | 46% | 0.92 | 3.74 | 6.0 | 8.9% |
| 5 | Anderson | MCI | 45% | 0.90 | 2.97 | 6.5 | 6.8% |
| 6 | Garner | EVE | 44% | 0.87 | 4.04 | 6.0 | 0.1% |
| 7 | Andersen | FUL | 40% | 0.80 | 3.56 | 5.0 | 0.0% |
| 8 | Ampadu | LEE | 39% | 0.78 | 2.95 | 5.5 | 1.4% |
| 9 | Wieffer | BHA | 38% | 0.77 | 2.58 | 5.0 | 0.4% |
| 10 | Keane | EVE | 38% | 0.76 | 2.74 | 5.0 | 1.5% |
| 11 | Virgil | LIV | 37% | 0.74 | 5.07 | 6.5 | 19.6% |
| 12 | Alderete | SUN | 36% | 0.73 | 3.42 | 5.0 | 0.5% |
| 13 | Richards | CRY | 36% | 0.71 | 2.35 | 5.0 | 0.7% |
| 14 | Scott | BOU | 35% | 0.70 | 3.72 | 6.0 | 1.5% |
| 15 | Ballard | SUN | 35% | 0.70 | 3.09 | 5.0 | 5.3% |
| 16 | Collins | BRE | 35% | 0.69 | 3.05 | 5.5 | 2.0% |
| 17 | Hill | BOU | 33% | 0.66 | 2.75 | 5.5 | 0.9% |
| 18 | Van Hecke | TOT | 31% | 0.62 | 4.13 | 5.0 | 10.1% |
| 19 | Struijk | BHA | 30% | 0.60 | 2.84 | 5.0 | 0.2% |
| 20 | Xhaka | SUN | 29% | 0.59 | 3.15 | 5.5 | 4.5% |

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Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/fpl/gw2/defcon.json