# Gameweek 2 spreads: B.Fernandes hauls 42% of the time

> Every projection on this site is the average of tens of thousands of simulated gameweeks. This is the shape behind the average: B.Fernandes blanks in 17% of them and scores double figures in 42%.

By the evmax model · 26 August 2026 · https://evmax.ai/fpl/gw2/distributions/

B.Fernandes (MUN) projects 17.23 with the armband. Behind that one number: his floor is 1 point in the worst tenth of simulations, his single most likely score is 10, and his ceiling is 17 in the best tenth. He reaches double figures in 42% of simulations and returns two points or fewer in 17%.Haaland is the alternative at 14.62 captained, on a floor of 0 and a ceiling of 13. He outscores B.Fernandes in 44% of simulated gameweeks. That comparison treats the two players as independent of each other. They are not: two attackers in the same match rise and fall together, and our simulation knows it even though this figure does not. Read it as the size of the gap, not as a settled number.The floor and the ceiling belong to different players. Thiago has the highest floor at 2 points, so he is the pick if a bad week would cost you rank. B.Fernandes has the highest ceiling at 17, so he is the pick if you need to make ground. M.Sangaré blanks least often, in 16% of simulations.

**Bottom line:** Captain B.Fernandes — 42% of simulations reach double figures, against a 17% chance of two points or fewer.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | Captain EV | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Haul % | Blank % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | B.Fernandes | MUN | 17.23 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 42% | 17% |
| 2 | Haaland | MCI | 14.62 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 27% | 34% |
| 3 | M.Sangaré | BRE | 12.11 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 17% | 16% |
| 4 | Szoboszlai | LIV | 11.81 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 23% | 41% |
| 5 | Thiago | BRE | 10.34 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 13% | 55% |
| 6 | Mbeumo | MUN | 10.21 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 19% | 56% |
| 7 | Virgil | LIV | 10.15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 10% | 34% |
| 8 | Tavernier | BOU | 9.44 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 18% | 57% |

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Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/fpl/gw2/distributions.json