# Mukiele is the gameweek 3 DefCon banker

> He clears the 10-action threshold in 77% of simulations.

By the evmax model · 3 September 2026 · https://evmax.ai/fpl/gw3/defcon/

Mukiele (SUN) records at least 10 defensive actions in 77% of our simulations, worth 1.54 on its own. Defensive contribution is a threshold, not a rate: a player either clears the count in a given match or earns nothing, which is why we quote the hit rate rather than an average.Zubimendi is next at 68% against a 12-action threshold.

**Bottom line:** Mukiele is the most reliable route to the 2-point defensive bonus — 77% of simulations.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | P(DefCon) | DefCon pts | xPts | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mukiele | SUN | 77% | 1.54 | 3.54 | 5.5 | 2.4% |
| 2 | Zubimendi | ARS | 68% | 1.37 | 3.49 | 5.4 | 0.8% |
| 3 | Garner | EVE | 59% | 1.18 | 4.14 | 6.0 | 0.1% |
| 4 | Egan | HUL | 58% | 1.16 | 2.91 | 4.0 | 4.5% |
| 5 | Stach | LEE | 56% | 1.12 | 3.33 | 6.0 | 2.9% |
| 6 | M.Sangaré | BRE | 53% | 1.06 | 4.14 | 5.7 | 13.4% |
| 7 | Anderson | MCI | 48% | 0.96 | 3.93 | 6.4 | 5.2% |
| 8 | Muharemović | LEE | 47% | 0.95 | 2.49 | 5.0 | 3.3% |
| 9 | Scott | BOU | 47% | 0.93 | 4.14 | 6.0 | 1.9% |
| 10 | Richards | CRY | 47% | 0.93 | 3.26 | 5.0 | 0.7% |
| 11 | Lacroix | CHE | 46% | 0.92 | 2.71 | 6.0 | 8.5% |
| 12 | Bruno G. | ARS | 44% | 0.89 | 3.24 | 6.8 | 2.2% |
| 13 | J.Murphy | NEW | 44% | 0.88 | 3.01 | 5.9 | 0.1% |
| 14 | Milenković | NFO | 44% | 0.87 | 3.46 | 5.5 | 1.7% |
| 15 | Hall | NEW | 43% | 0.87 | 3.57 | 5.1 | 8.7% |
| 16 | Ajer | BRE | 43% | 0.86 | 2.74 | 4.5 | 4.9% |
| 17 | Damsgaard | BRE | 39% | 0.78 | 3.04 | 5.5 | 0.5% |
| 18 | Tarkowski | EVE | 38% | 0.76 | 3.60 | 6.0 | 10.5% |
| 19 | Ndiaye | MCI | 37% | 0.73 | 3.81 | 6.0 | 13.5% |
| 20 | Adams | BOU | 37% | 0.73 | 1.94 | 5.0 | 0.2% |

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Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/fpl/gw3/defcon.json