# Guéhi leads the gameweek 3 defenders

> 4.41 expected points, with 1.65 of it from clean sheets alone.

By the evmax model · 3 September 2026 · https://evmax.ai/fpl/gw3/defenders/

Guéhi (MCI) projects 4.41: 1.65 from clean sheets, 0.02 from defensive contribution and 0.31 from bonus. Where a defender's points come from matters as much as the total — a clean-sheet projection lives or dies on one fixture, while defensive contribution pays regardless of the scoreline.

**Bottom line:** Guéhi at 6.0 is the defensive pick of the gameweek.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | xPts | CS pts | DefCon pts | Bonus | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guéhi | MCI | 4.41 | 1.65 | 0.02 | 0.31 | 6.0 |
| 2 | Virgil | LIV | 4.39 | 1.20 | 0.69 | 0.05 | 6.5 |
| 3 | O'Reilly | MCI | 4.17 | 1.49 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 6.5 |
| 4 | Thiaw | NEW | 3.98 | 0.82 | 0.59 | 0.13 | 5.0 |
| 5 | N.Williams | NFO | 3.93 | 1.00 | 0.63 | 0.23 | 5.0 |
| 6 | Calafiori | ARS | 3.79 | 1.21 | 0.01 | 0.36 | 5.6 |
| 7 | Kayode | BRE | 3.78 | 1.47 | 0.02 | 0.30 | 4.6 |
| 8 | Tarkowski | EVE | 3.60 | 0.73 | 0.76 | 0.19 | 6.0 |
| 9 | Kelleher | BRE | 3.59 | 1.48 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 5.0 |
| 10 | Hall | NEW | 3.57 | 0.62 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 5.1 |
| 11 | Mukiele | SUN | 3.54 | 0.50 | 1.54 | 0.28 | 5.5 |
| 12 | Collins | BRE | 3.49 | 1.30 | 0.39 | 0.05 | 5.5 |
| 13 | Struijk | BHA | 3.48 | 1.05 | 0.55 | 0.01 | 5.0 |
| 14 | Cash | AVL | 3.48 | 1.21 | 0.23 | 0.05 | 4.5 |
| 15 | Milenković | NFO | 3.46 | 1.03 | 0.87 | 0.01 | 5.5 |
| 16 | Donnarumma | MCI | 3.43 | 1.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.5 |
| 17 | Verbruggen | BHA | 3.35 | 1.28 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 4.5 |
| 18 | Raya | ARS | 3.34 | 1.37 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 6.0 |
| 19 | F.Kadıoğlu | BHA | 3.28 | 1.12 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 4.4 |
| 20 | Richards | CRY | 3.26 | 0.71 | 0.93 | 0.04 | 5.0 |

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Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/fpl/gw3/defenders.json