# Gameweek 3 spreads: Haaland hauls 39% of the time

> Every projection on this site is the average of tens of thousands of simulated gameweeks. This is the shape behind the average: Haaland blanks in 26% of them and scores double figures in 39%.

By the evmax model · 3 September 2026 · https://evmax.ai/fpl/gw3/distributions/

Haaland (MCI) projects 17.16 with the armband. Behind that one number: his floor is 0 points in the worst tenth of simulations, his single most likely score is 0, and his ceiling is 17 in the best tenth. He reaches double figures in 39% of simulations and returns two points or fewer in 26%.B.Fernandes is the alternative at 15.88 captained, on a floor of 2 and a ceiling of 15. He outscores Haaland in 48% of simulated gameweeks. That comparison treats the two players as independent of each other. They are not: two attackers in the same match rise and fall together, and our simulation knows it even though this figure does not. Read it as the size of the gap, not as a settled number.The floor and the ceiling belong to different players. B.Fernandes has the highest floor at 2 points, so he is the pick if a bad week would cost you rank. Haaland has the highest ceiling at 17, so he is the pick if you need to make ground. B.Fernandes blanks least often, in 11% of simulations.

**Bottom line:** Captain Haaland — 39% of simulations reach double figures, against a 26% chance of two points or fewer.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | Captain EV | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Haul % | Blank % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haaland | MCI | 17.16 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 39% | 26% |
| 2 | B.Fernandes | MUN | 15.88 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 35% | 11% |
| 3 | Szoboszlai | LIV | 13.32 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 29% | 34% |
| 4 | Gakpo | LIV | 11.20 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 23% | 40% |
| 5 | Saka | ARS | 10.90 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 25% | 42% |
| 6 | Thiago | BRE | 10.52 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 19% | 47% |
| 7 | Gibbs-White | NFO | 10.18 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 17% | 54% |
| 8 | Enzo | MCI | 9.89 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 16% | 44% |

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Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/fpl/gw3/distributions.json