# Cole Palmer is the gameweek 4 captain

> 15.50 captain EV, 18.94 ceiling — the best armband in the model.

By the evmax model · 11 September 2026 · https://evmax.ai/fpl/gw4/captains/

Cole Palmer (CHE) projects 15.50 captained, off 7.75 expected points, with a ceiling of 18.94 — the average of his best 15% of simulations.Saka is the alternative at 13.07. He kicks off later, so he works as a vice only if your captain's match is already done.

**Bottom line:** Captain Cole Palmer — 15.50 is the highest doubled projection on the board.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | Captain EV | xPts | Ceiling | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cole Palmer | CHE | 15.50 | 7.75 | 18.94 | 9.7 | 24.5% |
| 2 | Saka | ARS | 13.07 | 6.54 | 16.15 | 9.5 | 11.4% |
| 3 | Haaland | MCI | 12.13 | 6.07 | 14.81 | 15.5 | 71.3% |
| 4 | João Pedro | CHE | 11.79 | 5.90 | 14.54 | 7.7 | 72.9% |
| 5 | Szoboszlai | LIV | 11.45 | 5.72 | 14.75 | 7.0 | 38.4% |
| 6 | B.Fernandes | MUN | 10.85 | 5.43 | 14.50 | 12.0 | 44.6% |
| 7 | Thiago | BRE | 10.61 | 5.30 | 13.40 | 7.9 | 11.5% |
| 8 | Tavernier | BOU | 10.14 | 5.07 | 13.18 | 6.0 | 3.4% |
| 9 | Calvert-Lewin | LEE | 10.04 | 5.02 | 13.33 | 6.0 | 23.0% |
| 10 | Isak | LIV | 9.91 | 4.95 | 13.41 | 9.1 | 21.9% |
| 11 | Gibbs-White | NFO | 9.90 | 4.95 | 13.29 | 7.9 | 9.4% |
| 12 | Wirtz | LIV | 9.81 | 4.90 | 13.07 | 7.4 | 8.1% |
| 13 | Gabriel | ARS | 9.54 | 4.77 | 10.93 | 8.0 | 24.4% |
| 14 | Lacroix | CHE | 9.42 | 4.71 | 10.43 | 6.0 | 8.1% |
| 15 | Barry | EVE | 9.36 | 4.68 | 11.94 | 5.6 | 5.8% |
| 16 | Rogers | CHE | 9.31 | 4.66 | 11.99 | 7.6 | 31.0% |
| 17 | Nketiah | CRY | 9.22 | 4.61 | 12.70 | 5.5 | 0.7% |
| 18 | De Cuyper | BHA | 9.22 | 4.61 | 12.97 | 4.8 | 20.8% |
| 19 | Groß | BHA | 9.02 | 4.51 | 12.44 | 5.6 | 16.3% |
| 20 | Calafiori | ARS | 8.99 | 4.50 | 11.30 | 5.8 | 48.4% |

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Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/fpl/gw4/captains.json