# The consensus XI: the experts' gameweek 4 team

> A mention-tally across the expert consensus sources, assembled into a legal 15 — Haaland carries the majority armband.

By the evmax model · 11 September 2026 · https://evmax.ai/fpl/gw4/consensus-squad/

This squad follows the crowd on purpose. We tally which players the expert consensus sources keep naming, keep the names most lists agree on, and assemble them into a quota-, budget- and club-legal 15. The captain is the majority call, not ours: Haaland, with João Pedro as vice.

> Its minutes come from sourced research notes rather than our engine — where the experts assert a starter, this squad believes them. The weekly gap between this team and our own squad measures exactly whose information about who actually plays is better.

Scored on our numbers, the 3-4-3 XI projects 47.15 points, 53.22 with the captain doubled. Both squads are published before every deadline and graded after it — the season scoreboard settles the argument.

**Bottom line:** The crowd's 15: 3-4-3, Haaland (c) — 53.22 projected on our model's numbers.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | xPts | Ceiling | Captain EV | Pts/m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raya | ARS | 4.27 | 8.80 | 8.54 | 0.71 |
| 2 | Calafiori | ARS | 4.50 | 11.30 | 8.99 | 0.78 |
| 3 | O'Reilly | MCI | 1.98 | 7.90 | 3.97 | 0.31 |
| 4 | Shaw | MUN | 2.35 | 7.77 | 4.71 | 0.53 |
| 5 | Szoboszlai | LIV | 5.72 | 14.75 | 11.45 | 0.82 |
| 6 | Mbeumo | MUN | 4.27 | 12.05 | 8.55 | 0.54 |
| 7 | Tzolis | ARS | 2.41 | 7.61 | 4.83 | 0.38 |
| 8 | Rogers | CHE | 4.66 | 11.99 | 9.31 | 0.61 |
| 9 | Haaland | MCI | 6.07 | 14.81 | 12.13 | 0.39 |
| 10 | João Pedro | CHE | 5.90 | 14.54 | 11.79 | 0.77 |
| 11 | Calvert-Lewin | LEE | 5.02 | 13.33 | 10.04 | 0.84 |
| 12 | Kinsky | TOT | 3.31 | 8.77 | 6.62 | 0.74 |
| 13 | Guéhi | MCI | 3.17 | 9.37 | 6.34 | 0.53 |
| 14 | Diop | IPS | 2.66 | 8.51 | 5.33 | 0.67 |
| 15 | Slater | HUL | 2.08 | 5.49 | 4.16 | 0.46 |

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Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/fpl/gw4/consensus-squad.json