# Egan is the gameweek 4 DefCon banker

> He clears the 10-action threshold in 44% of simulations.

By the evmax model · 11 September 2026 · https://evmax.ai/fpl/gw4/defcon/

Egan (HUL) records at least 10 defensive actions in 44% of our simulations, worth 0.89 on its own. Defensive contribution is a threshold, not a rate: a player either clears the count in a given match or earns nothing, which is why we quote the hit rate rather than an average.Muharemović is next at 43% against a 10-action threshold.

**Bottom line:** Egan is the most reliable route to the 2-point defensive bonus — 44% of simulations.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | P(DefCon) | DefCon pts | xPts | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Egan | HUL | 44% | 0.89 | 1.93 | 4.1 | 6.3% |
| 2 | Muharemović | LEE | 43% | 0.85 | 3.48 | 5.0 | 3.6% |
| 3 | Mukiele | SUN | 40% | 0.81 | 2.57 | 5.5 | 2.2% |
| 4 | Tarkowski | EVE | 35% | 0.69 | 3.54 | 6.0 | 11.4% |
| 5 | Ajer | BRE | 34% | 0.68 | 3.03 | 4.5 | 4.7% |
| 6 | Lacroix | CHE | 33% | 0.67 | 4.71 | 6.0 | 8.1% |
| 7 | Milenković | NFO | 33% | 0.66 | 3.19 | 5.5 | 1.6% |
| 8 | Khalaili | CRY | 33% | 0.66 | 3.57 | 5.0 | 0.2% |
| 9 | Richards | CRY | 33% | 0.66 | 4.22 | 5.0 | 0.7% |
| 10 | Hall | NEW | 31% | 0.61 | 3.77 | 5.1 | 12.6% |
| 11 | Wesley Fofana | CHE | 30% | 0.61 | 3.39 | 5.0 | 0.1% |
| 12 | Branthwaite | EVE | 30% | 0.61 | 2.85 | 5.5 | 1.9% |
| 13 | Justin | LEE | 29% | 0.58 | 3.43 | 4.5 | 1.5% |
| 14 | Bobby Thomas | COV | 29% | 0.58 | 2.94 | 4.0 | 8.9% |
| 15 | Silva | BOU | 29% | 0.58 | 3.06 | 5.0 | 0.4% |
| 16 | O'Shea | IPS | 28% | 0.57 | 2.63 | 4.0 | 3.0% |
| 17 | Murillo | NFO | 27% | 0.54 | 3.20 | 5.5 | 1.6% |
| 18 | Ballard | SUN | 27% | 0.54 | 2.79 | 4.9 | 3.3% |
| 19 | Diop | IPS | 24% | 0.48 | 2.66 | 4.0 | 14.6% |
| 20 | Virgil | LIV | 23% | 0.45 | 4.38 | 6.5 | 17.2% |

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Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/fpl/gw4/defcon.json