# Gameweek 4 spreads: Cole Palmer hauls 35% of the time

> Every projection on this site is the average of tens of thousands of simulated gameweeks. This is the shape behind the average: Cole Palmer blanks in 29% of them and scores double figures in 35%.

By the evmax model · 11 September 2026 · https://evmax.ai/fpl/gw4/distributions/

Cole Palmer (CHE) projects 15.50 with the armband. Behind that one number: his floor is 0 points in the worst tenth of simulations, his single most likely score is 2, and his ceiling is 16 in the best tenth. He reaches double figures in 35% of simulations and returns two points or fewer in 29%.Saka is the alternative at 13.07 captained, on a floor of 1 and a ceiling of 15. He outscores Cole Palmer in 46% of simulated gameweeks. That comparison treats the two players as independent of each other. They are not: two attackers in the same match rise and fall together, and our simulation knows it even though this figure does not. Read it as the size of the gap, not as a settled number.The floor and the ceiling belong to different players. Saka has the highest floor at 1 point, so he is the pick if a bad week would cost you rank. Cole Palmer has the highest ceiling at 16, so he is the pick if you need to make ground. Cole Palmer blanks least often, in 29% of simulations.

**Bottom line:** Captain Cole Palmer — 35% of simulations reach double figures, against a 29% chance of two points or fewer.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | Captain EV | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Haul % | Blank % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cole Palmer | CHE | 15.50 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 35% | 29% |
| 2 | Saka | ARS | 13.07 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 31% | 29% |
| 3 | Haaland | MCI | 12.13 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 20% | 48% |
| 4 | João Pedro | CHE | 11.79 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 19% | 48% |
| 5 | Szoboszlai | LIV | 11.45 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 23% | 35% |
| 6 | B.Fernandes | MUN | 10.85 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 20% | 46% |
| 7 | Thiago | BRE | 10.61 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 14% | 54% |
| 8 | Tavernier | BOU | 10.14 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 20% | 43% |

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Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/fpl/gw4/distributions.json