# Gameweek 4 fixture ticker: ARS lead the clean sheets

> ARS project 0.50 expected clean sheets against SUN (A).

By the evmax model · 11 September 2026 · https://evmax.ai/fpl/gw4/ticker/

ARS top the ticker at 0.50 expected clean sheets (SUN (A)), conceding an expected 0.7. These numbers are market-derived.

**Bottom line:** Target ARS defenders — 0.50 expected clean sheets is the best on the board.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | Clean sheets | xGF | xGA | Fixtures | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARS | SUN (A) | 0.50 | 1.82 | 0.70 | 1 | market |
| 2 | CHE | HUL (H) | 0.46 | 2.77 | 0.78 | 1 | market |
| 3 | LIV | FUL (H) | 0.35 | 2.35 | 1.05 | 1 | market |
| 4 | CRY | IPS (H) | 0.33 | 1.71 | 1.10 | 1 | market |
| 5 | BHA | COV (A) | 0.33 | 1.73 | 1.11 | 1 | market |
| 6 | TOT | EVE (H) | 0.33 | 1.58 | 1.11 | 1 | market |
| 7 | AVL | NFO (H) | 0.30 | 1.42 | 1.19 | 1 | market |
| 8 | LEE | NEW (H) | 0.27 | 1.46 | 1.33 | 1 | market |
| 9 | NFO | AVL (A) | 0.24 | 1.19 | 1.42 | 1 | market |
| 10 | NEW | LEE (A) | 0.23 | 1.33 | 1.46 | 1 | market |
| 11 | MCI | MUN (A) | 0.23 | 1.80 | 1.46 | 1 | market |
| 12 | BOU | BRE (H) | 0.22 | 1.58 | 1.49 | 1 | market |
| 13 | BRE | BOU (A) | 0.21 | 1.49 | 1.58 | 1 | market |
| 14 | EVE | TOT (A) | 0.20 | 1.11 | 1.58 | 1 | market |
| 15 | IPS | CRY (A) | 0.18 | 1.10 | 1.71 | 1 | market |
| 16 | COV | BHA (H) | 0.18 | 1.11 | 1.73 | 1 | market |
| 17 | MUN | MCI (H) | 0.17 | 1.46 | 1.80 | 1 | market |
| 18 | SUN | ARS (H) | 0.16 | 0.70 | 1.82 | 1 | market |
| 19 | FUL | LIV (A) | 0.10 | 1.05 | 2.35 | 1 | market |
| 20 | HUL | CHE (A) | 0.06 | 0.78 | 2.77 | 1 | market |

---
Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/fpl/gw4/ticker.json