# Haaland is the gameweek 5 captain

> 16.05 captain EV, 17.06 ceiling — the best armband in the model.

By the evmax model · 17 September 2026 · https://evmax.ai/fpl/gw5/captains/

Haaland (MCI) projects 16.05 captained, off 8.02 expected points, with a ceiling of 17.06 — the average of his best 15% of simulations.Saka is the alternative at 13.86. He kicks off first, so he is the safer vice.

**Bottom line:** Captain Haaland — 16.05 is the highest doubled projection on the board.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | Captain EV | xPts | Ceiling | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haaland | MCI | 16.05 | 8.02 | 17.06 | 15.5 | 72.7% |
| 2 | Saka | ARS | 13.86 | 6.93 | 16.59 | 9.5 | 12.5% |
| 3 | Gibbs-White | NFO | 13.80 | 6.90 | 16.75 | 8.0 | 13.3% |
| 4 | Barry | EVE | 13.35 | 6.67 | 14.96 | 5.6 | 6.8% |
| 5 | B.Fernandes | MUN | 13.08 | 6.54 | 16.25 | 12.0 | 41.2% |
| 6 | Cole Palmer | CHE | 12.71 | 6.35 | 16.10 | 9.7 | 26.8% |
| 7 | Calvert-Lewin | LEE | 12.52 | 6.26 | 14.78 | 6.0 | 23.5% |
| 8 | Wissa | NEW | 11.46 | 5.73 | 14.18 | 6.2 | 18.3% |
| 9 | Barnes | NEW | 10.78 | 5.39 | 13.79 | 6.0 | 3.4% |
| 10 | Thiago | BRE | 10.62 | 5.31 | 13.90 | 7.9 | 9.3% |
| 11 | Mbeumo | MUN | 10.20 | 5.10 | 13.75 | 7.9 | 22.4% |
| 12 | Hall | NEW | 10.04 | 5.02 | 11.74 | 5.2 | 14.4% |
| 13 | Tavernier | BOU | 9.94 | 4.97 | 12.88 | 6.1 | 5.8% |
| 14 | Guéhi | MCI | 9.81 | 4.90 | 11.45 | 6.0 | 18.5% |
| 15 | N.Williams | NFO | 9.61 | 4.81 | 11.41 | 5.0 | 8.8% |
| 16 | Thiaw | NEW | 9.56 | 4.78 | 11.90 | 5.0 | 2.2% |
| 17 | Tarkowski | EVE | 9.32 | 4.66 | 11.03 | 6.1 | 13.6% |
| 18 | Gonzalo | FUL | 9.30 | 4.65 | 12.27 | 6.0 | 3.6% |
| 19 | Dewsbury-Hall | EVE | 9.15 | 4.57 | 11.81 | 6.5 | 5.4% |
| 20 | Cherki | MCI | 9.05 | 4.53 | 12.69 | 7.8 | 28.2% |

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Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/fpl/gw5/captains.json