# Muharemović is the gameweek 6 DefCon banker

> He clears the 10-action threshold in 46% of simulations.

By the evmax model · 9 October 2026 · https://evmax.ai/fpl/gw6/defcon/

Muharemović (LEE) records at least 10 defensive actions in 46% of our simulations, worth 0.92 on its own. Defensive contribution is a threshold, not a rate: a player either clears the count in a given match or earns nothing, which is why we quote the hit rate rather than an average.Botman is next at 46% against a 10-action threshold.

**Bottom line:** Muharemović is the most reliable route to the 2-point defensive bonus — 46% of simulations.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | P(DefCon) | DefCon pts | xPts | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muharemović | LEE | 46% | 0.92 | 2.87 | 5.0 | 4.4% |
| 2 | Botman | NEW | 46% | 0.91 | 3.96 | 5.0 | 0.7% |
| 3 | Egan | HUL | 45% | 0.90 | 3.17 | 4.1 | 7.1% |
| 4 | Silva | BOU | 44% | 0.88 | 3.29 | 5.0 | 0.5% |
| 5 | Wesley Fofana | CHE | 42% | 0.85 | 3.59 | 5.0 | 0.2% |
| 6 | Richards | CRY | 42% | 0.84 | 4.33 | 4.9 | 0.6% |
| 7 | Branthwaite | EVE | 41% | 0.83 | 4.06 | 5.5 | 2.6% |
| 8 | Mukiele | SUN | 41% | 0.83 | 4.01 | 5.4 | 1.9% |
| 9 | Bobby Thomas | COV | 38% | 0.77 | 3.75 | 4.0 | 8.6% |
| 10 | Tarkowski | EVE | 38% | 0.76 | 4.62 | 6.2 | 17.7% |
| 11 | Pinnock | COV | 38% | 0.76 | 2.51 | 4.5 | 0.1% |
| 12 | Murillo | NFO | 37% | 0.73 | 3.71 | 5.5 | 2.2% |
| 13 | Hill | BOU | 36% | 0.72 | 2.89 | 5.5 | 0.8% |
| 14 | Ajer | BRE | 35% | 0.69 | 3.34 | 4.5 | 3.8% |
| 15 | Virgil | LIV | 34% | 0.67 | 3.71 | 6.5 | 16.2% |
| 16 | Lacroix | CHE | 33% | 0.66 | 3.17 | 5.9 | 6.7% |
| 17 | Khalaili | CRY | 33% | 0.66 | 4.04 | 5.0 | 0.3% |
| 18 | Janelt | BRE | 32% | 0.65 | 3.33 | 5.0 | 2.5% |
| 19 | O'Shea | IPS | 32% | 0.65 | 3.32 | 4.0 | 2.6% |
| 20 | Bentancur | TOT | 32% | 0.63 | 2.59 | 5.5 | 0.2% |

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Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/fpl/gw6/defcon.json