# GW7: compare holding with one, two or three transfers

> Saka first; the next move depends on injury cover. Every number is conditional on the recorded website roster and finances.

By the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · https://evmax.ai/fpl/gw7/transfer-plan/

**Provisional, 14 October 2026.** The user plans account transfers on Friday. Only three free transfers are confirmed. These examples assume the held website Model fifteen, £0 bank and recorded purchase prices; actual squad, bank, displayed sale prices, chips and already-made moves remain unknown. No transfer has been submitted.

## The conditional shortlist

Bruno Fernandes → Saka is the first move to review. Then consider Evanilson → Gonzalo if injury cover is adequate, or Szoboszlai → Tavernier if his return remains unclear. Shaw → De Cuyper is an optional third move after workload and fitness checks.

FTsMovesGW7 gain3-week gain5-week gainBankNext FTs

0Hold0.000.000.00£0.0m4

1Bruno → Saka+2.23+5.67+6.67£2.3m3

2Bruno, Evanilson → Saka, Gonzalo+4.30+10.75+13.68£2.2m2

2Bruno, Szoboszlai → Saka, Tavernier+3.35+8.35+10.80£3.1m2

3Bruno, Evanilson, Shaw → Saka, Gonzalo, De Cuyper+6.59+13.44+17.21£1.4m1

3Bruno, Szoboszlai, Shaw → Saka, Tavernier, De Cuyper+5.64+11.04+14.33£2.3m1

Gains compare the entire best legal XI plus captain against holding. Holding projects 57.28 in GW7. Future weeks are discounted by 0.95 per week. The model excludes autosubs, conditional vice fallback, adaptive future transfers, chips and **saved-transfer option value**. Do not spend every FT just because it is available.

## How sure are we?

The evidence supports a shortlist, not a guaranteed optimum or a probability of success. Saka first is the more robust recommendation; the exact second and third moves are less certain. In the combined cautious minutes scenario, the one-transfer gain is +2.05; the two-transfer Gonzalo/Tavernier routes remain +4.03/+3.25; the three-transfer routes remain +5.29/+4.51. These are stress assumptions, not confidence intervals.

If Szoboszlai recovers from GW8, the five-week Tavernier route falls from +10.80 to +9.43 and the Gonzalo route is +12.38. A return date is not confirmed. GW7 uses market odds; GW8 has four market-priced fixtures and six strength estimates; GW9–11 use strength estimates throughout. Longer-horizon numbers are correspondingly less certain.

## Haaland versus Saka

Haaland projects 8.63 ordinary points, Saka 7.02. Haaland is the provisional captain if already owned and fit. Saka captains the proposed Saka squads because they lack Haaland. The held website roster instead has Thiago captain at 5.95, in a close cluster with Calvert-Lewin 5.90, Bruno 5.86 and Palmer 5.84.

Haaland acquisition was evaluated: Bruno, Gibbs-White, Thiago → Groß, Tavernier, Haaland uses three FTs and leaves £0, gaining +6.31 GW7 but only +3.11 over five weeks. Its cautious GW7 gain is +2.13. The tested Haaland-plus-Saka route is £0.3m short. Buying the highest projected individual need not give the best whole-squad result.

## Research changes the interpretation

Arsenal's 13 October report records Saka's substitute goal and assist. Liverpool's injury list reports Szoboszlai's hamstring problem; it does not confirm a GW7 return. Fulham confirms Gonzalo's identity; the captured official FPL feed lists six league starts and penalty order one, not an observed penalty goal.

Bournemouth's European schedule means Tavernier and Evanilson need a Thursday workload check too. City and Brighton minutes remain relevant. News was checked through 14 October 14:27 UTC; later matches and Friday press conferences are pending.

The model narrowly prefers Palmer → Saka (+8.30 over five weeks), whereas the shortlist sells Bruno (+6.67), retains Palmer and releases more cash. That is a judgment about fixtures and flexibility, not an alteration to the model. Gibbs-White → Cherki is +1.26 immediately but −3.52 over five weeks, and −1.10 immediately under cautious minutes. Early Scout selections do not justify chasing a recent haul. See the dated expert scan; search-indexed evidence and pending final selections are labelled.

## Friday checklist

Confirm the actual fifteen, bank, displayed sale prices, chip history and any existing moves. Recheck European minutes, official injuries, Friday press conferences and final expert picks; recalculate the chosen complete squad. Deadline: **17 October, 10:00 UTC / 11:00 BST**. No chip is recommended provisionally. This website update does not operate the account.

**Bottom line:** 

## The data

_No data available for this article._

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Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/fpl/gw7/transfer-plan.json