# Fixture guide: clean sheets and blowouts for Round 5

> France rate highest for a clean sheet at 60% vs Paraguay.

By the evmax model · 7 July 2026 · https://evmax.ai/round/5/fixtures/

France carry the best clean-sheet odds this round at 60% vs Paraguay, conceding just 0.52 expected goals. Argentina are next at 55% vs Egypt.

> Target attackers in the blowout fixtures — France vs Paraguay, United States vs Belgium, Belgium vs United States, each projecting 2.53+ goals for.

**Bottom line:** Back France for a clean sheet (60% vs Paraguay), target attackers in the blowouts, and fade forwards in the low-goal fixtures.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | CS % | xGA | xGF | Best DEF | Best GK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | vs Paraguay | 60% | 0.52 | 2.53 | Dayot Upamecano (5.0) | Mike Maignan (5.1) |
| 2 | Argentina | vs Egypt | 55% | 0.61 | 1.97 | Cristian Romero (3.8) | Emiliano Martinez (4.8) |
| 3 | Morocco | vs Canada | 45% | 0.80 | 1.64 | Achraf Hakimi (5.1) | Yassine 'Bono' Bounou (4.4) |
| 4 | Colombia | vs Switzerland | 36% | 1.02 | 1.29 | Jhon Lucumi (3.5) | Vargas (3.4) |
| 5 | England | vs Mexico | 35% | 1.06 | 1.25 | Ezri Konsa (3.2) | Jordan Pickford (3.8) |
| 6 | Brazil | vs Norway | 34% | 1.09 | 1.77 | Gabriel Magalhães (3.5) | Alisson Becker (3.8) |
| 7 | Spain | vs Portugal | 32% | 1.13 | 1.69 | Aymeric Laporte (3.1) | Unai Simon (3.7) |
| 8 | Mexico | vs England | 29% | 1.25 | 1.06 | Cesar Montes (2.7) | Rangel (3.0) |
| 9 | Switzerland | vs Colombia | 27% | 1.29 | 1.02 | Manuel Akanji (2.8) | Gregor Kobel (3.1) |
| 10 | United States | vs Belgium | 24% | 1.44 | 1.56 | Chris Richards (2.5) | Matt Freese (2.8) |
| 11 | Belgium | vs United States | 21% | 1.56 | 1.44 | Maxim De Cuyper (2.8) | Thibaut Courtois (3.0) |
| 12 | Canada | vs Morocco | 19% | 1.64 | 0.80 | Alistair Johnston (2.1) | Maxime Crepeau (2.9) |
| 13 | Portugal | vs Spain | 18% | 1.69 | 1.13 | Nuno Mendes (2.4) | Diogo Costa (2.8) |
| 14 | Norway | vs Brazil | 17% | 1.77 | 1.09 | David Møller Wolfe (1.6) | Ørjan Nyland (2.2) |
| 15 | Egypt | vs Argentina | 14% | 1.97 | 0.61 | Mohamed Hany (1.5) | Mostafa Oufa Shobeir (2.5) |
| 16 | Paraguay | vs France | 8% | 2.53 | 0.52 | Gustavo Gomez (0.8) | Orlando Gill (1.9) |

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Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/round/5/fixtures.json