# Emiliano Martinez leads Round 6 value at 0.868 points per million

> Argentina's goalkeeper dominates efficiency metrics. Here are the best-value picks across every budget tier.

By the evmax model · 8 July 2026 · https://evmax.ai/round/6/efficiency/

Emiliano Martinez has established himself as the overall value leader in Round 6, delivering 0.868 points per million—a clean 1.0 percentage point ahead of the field. At 5.0m, the Argentina goalkeeper projects 4.34 xPts with a safe floor and no big-haul upside, typical of the position. His 30.0% ownership reflects his status as a consensus pick, yet the numbers justify the crowding: he remains the most efficient use of capital available, and his Argentina fixture on 2026-07-12 carries the weight of a team built to defend.

Within the Budget tier (under 5.5m), Mike Maignan emerges as the second-best value at 0.858 points per million. The France goalkeeper projects 4.29 xPts at the same 5.0m price point, offering nearly identical floor-and-ceiling safety to Martinez but with only 8.9% ownership—a meaningful contrarian edge if you want to avoid the Martinez pile-up. Dayot Upamecano (France, DEF) leads the Mid tier (5.5m–8.0m) at 0.749 points per million, projecting 3.97 xPts with a safe floor and no ceiling at 5.3m. His low 4.9% ownership and France's defensive solidity make him a logical pairing with either goalkeeper.

> The widest gap between floor and ceiling in this dataset belongs to Noni Madueke, whose 3.56 xPts floor stretches to a 7.77 ceiling—a 2.182 ratio that signals genuine explosive upside if England's attack clicks.

Oyarzabal (Spain, FWD) claims the Premium tier (over 8.0m) at 0.568 points per million, projecting 4.6 xPts with a 7.65 ceiling—his 85th-percentile sim—at 8.1m. That ceiling ratio of 1.663 reflects the attacking upside baked into Spain's fixture, and his 10.8% ownership leaves room for differentiation in a round where most premiums will cluster around the same three or four names.

**Bottom line:** Build around Martinez or Maignan in goal (both 5.0m, identical value tiers), pair with Upamecano at 5.3m for defensive ballast, and if budget allows, target Oyarzabal's ceiling at 8.1m rather than chasing the consensus premium forwards. The data rewards discipline over herd instinct this round.

**Bottom line:** Build around Martinez or Maignan in goal (both 5.0m, identical value tiers), pair with Upamecano at 5.3m for defensive ballast, and if budget allows, target Oyarzabal's ceiling at 8.1m rather than chasing the consensus premium forwards. The data rewards discipline over herd instinct this round.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | Pts/m | xPts | Price | Captain EV | Owned % | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emiliano Martinez | Argentina | 0.87 | 4.34 | 5.0 | 8.68 | 30.0% | 4.34 |
| 2 | Mike Maignan | France | 0.86 | 4.29 | 5.0 | 8.58 | 8.9% | 4.29 |
| 3 | Unai Simon | Spain | 0.82 | 4.09 | 5.0 | 8.19 | 8.5% | 4.09 |
| 4 | Facundo Medina | Argentina | 0.78 | 3.12 | 4.0 | 6.23 | 9.4% | 3.12 |
| 5 | Jordan Pickford | England | 0.77 | 3.68 | 4.8 | 7.36 | 15.9% | 3.68 |
| 6 | Dayot Upamecano | France | 0.75 | 3.97 | 5.3 | 7.94 | 4.9% | 3.97 |
| 7 | Lisandro Martinez | Argentina | 0.72 | 3.29 | 4.6 | 6.58 | 7.0% | 3.29 |
| 8 | Jules Kounde | France | 0.70 | 3.79 | 5.4 | 7.57 | 6.3% | 3.79 |
| 9 | William Saliba | France | 0.68 | 3.60 | 5.3 | 7.20 | 13.0% | 3.60 |
| 10 | Aymeric Laporte | Spain | 0.66 | 3.61 | 5.5 | 7.22 | 9.2% | 3.61 |
| 11 | Cucurella | Spain | 0.65 | 3.33 | 5.1 | 6.66 | 27.0% | 3.33 |
| 12 | Ezri Konsa | England | 0.64 | 3.08 | 4.8 | 6.16 | 3.0% | 3.08 |
| 13 | Pau Cubarsi | Spain | 0.64 | 3.17 | 5.0 | 6.35 | 6.1% | 3.17 |
| 14 | Cristian Romero | Argentina | 0.63 | 3.09 | 4.9 | 6.19 | 5.8% | 3.09 |
| 15 | Nico O'Reilly | England | 0.63 | 2.96 | 4.7 | 5.92 | 10.8% | 2.96 |
| 16 | Gregor Kobel | Switzerland | 0.59 | 2.79 | 4.7 | 5.59 | 3.9% | 2.79 |
| 17 | Nahuel Molina | Argentina | 0.59 | 2.61 | 4.4 | 5.22 | 3.3% | 2.61 |
| 18 | Noni Madueke | England | 0.58 | 3.56 | 6.1 | 7.13 | 0.3% | 7.77 |
| 19 | Oyarzabal | Spain | 0.57 | 4.60 | 8.1 | 9.20 | 10.8% | 7.65 |
| 20 | Yassine 'Bono' Bounou | Morocco | 0.57 | 2.66 | 4.7 | 5.32 | 5.7% | 2.66 |

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Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/round/6/efficiency.json