# Lionel Messi — top blowout target for Round 7

> Lionel Messi is the top transfer target at 4.82 xPts from a blowout fixture.

By the evmax model · 14 July 2026 · https://evmax.ai/round/7/blowout-transfers/

With the blowout fixture incoming, Lionel Messi (4.82 xPts, £10.0m) is the priority transfer.

> Fixtures drive points at a World Cup — get the best attackers from the biggest mismatches.

4.82 is the projected floor; if the goals flow the way the model expects, Lionel Messi's ceiling stretches to 7.84.

**Bottom line:** Bring in Lionel Messi before the deadline — 4.82 xPts from the blowout fixture.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | xPts | Captain EV | Ceiling | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mbappé | France | 4.92 | 9.84 | 7.59 | 10.5 | 59.2% |
| 2 | Lionel Messi | Argentina | 4.82 | 9.64 | 7.84 | 10.0 | 40.4% |
| 3 | Kane | England | 4.80 | 9.61 | 7.71 | 10.5 | 40.6% |
| 4 | Oyarzabal | Spain | 3.89 | 7.79 | 7.40 | 8.1 | 10.8% |
| 5 | Ousmane Dembele | France | 3.59 | 7.19 | 3.59 | 10.0 | 22.9% |
| 6 | Nico Williams | Spain | 3.55 | 7.10 | 8.68 | 7.8 | 1.9% |
| 7 | Bellingham | England | 3.49 | 6.98 | 3.49 | 8.3 | 17.0% |
| 8 | Lamine Yamal | Spain | 3.47 | 6.94 | 8.36 | 10.0 | 39.3% |
| 9 | Pedri | Spain | 3.34 | 6.67 | 3.34 | 8.1 | 7.8% |
| 10 | Thuram | France | 3.22 | 6.44 | 7.31 | 7.5 | 0.4% |
| 11 | Lautaro Martinez | Argentina | 3.21 | 6.41 | 7.23 | 8.8 | 2.6% |
| 12 | Michael Olise | France | 3.20 | 6.41 | 7.36 | 9.5 | 34.1% |
| 13 | Noni Madueke | England | 3.14 | 6.29 | 3.14 | 6.1 | 0.3% |
| 14 | Dani Olmo | Spain | 3.09 | 6.18 | 3.09 | 7.7 | 1.9% |
| 15 | Bukayo Saka | England | 3.03 | 6.05 | 3.03 | 9.5 | 4.4% |
| 16 | Bradley Barcola | France | 3.02 | 6.05 | 8.25 | 8.0 | 1.5% |
| 17 | Rice | England | 3.00 | 6.01 | 3.00 | 7.0 | 6.7% |
| 18 | Thiago Almada | Argentina | 3.00 | 5.99 | 3.00 | 6.5 | 0.3% |
| 19 | Elliot Anderson | England | 2.88 | 5.76 | 2.88 | 6.5 | 1.1% |
| 20 | Alexis Mac Allister | Argentina | 2.79 | 5.59 | 2.79 | 6.6 | 3.9% |

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Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/round/7/blowout-transfers.json