# Mbappé leads the armband race in Round 7

> Mbappé tops captain EV at 9.84 pts, ahead of Lionel Messi (9.64).

By the evmax model · 14 July 2026 · https://evmax.ai/round/7/captains/

Mbappé is the standout captain option this round, posting a captain EV of 9.84 pts and an xPts of 4.92. Lionel Messi is a credible alternative at 9.64 EV.

> Mbappé's ownership sits at 59.2%, making them a high-upside, manageable captaincy.

With a ceiling of 7.59, the upside justifies the pick. Priced at £10.5m, Mbappé offers value at 0.47 xPts/£.

**Bottom line:** Back Mbappé — 9.84 captain EV is the best available this round.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | Captain EV | xPts | Ceiling | Price | Pts/m | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mbappé | France | 9.84 | 4.92 | 7.59 | 10.5 | 0.47 | 59.2% |
| 2 | Lionel Messi | Argentina | 9.64 | 4.82 | 7.84 | 10.0 | 0.48 | 40.4% |
| 3 | Kane | England | 9.61 | 4.80 | 7.71 | 10.5 | 0.46 | 40.6% |
| 4 | Oyarzabal | Spain | 7.79 | 3.89 | 7.40 | 8.1 | 0.48 | 10.8% |
| 5 | Jordan Pickford | England | 7.39 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 4.8 | 0.77 | 15.9% |
| 6 | Ousmane Dembele | France | 7.19 | 3.59 | 3.59 | 10.0 | 0.36 | 22.9% |
| 7 | Nico Williams | Spain | 7.10 | 3.55 | 8.68 | 7.8 | 0.46 | 1.9% |
| 8 | Emiliano Martinez | Argentina | 7.07 | 3.53 | 3.53 | 5.0 | 0.71 | 30.0% |
| 9 | Bellingham | England | 6.98 | 3.49 | 3.49 | 8.3 | 0.42 | 17.0% |
| 10 | Lamine Yamal | Spain | 6.94 | 3.47 | 8.36 | 10.0 | 0.35 | 39.3% |
| 11 | Mike Maignan | France | 6.85 | 3.42 | 3.42 | 5.0 | 0.69 | 8.9% |
| 12 | Pedri | Spain | 6.67 | 3.34 | 3.34 | 8.1 | 0.41 | 7.8% |
| 13 | Thuram | France | 6.44 | 3.22 | 7.31 | 7.5 | 0.43 | 0.4% |
| 14 | Michael Olise | France | 6.41 | 3.20 | 7.36 | 9.5 | 0.34 | 34.1% |
| 15 | Lautaro Martinez | Argentina | 6.41 | 3.21 | 7.23 | 8.8 | 0.36 | 2.6% |
| 16 | Unai Simon | Spain | 6.39 | 3.19 | 3.19 | 5.0 | 0.64 | 8.5% |
| 17 | Noni Madueke | England | 6.29 | 3.14 | 3.14 | 6.1 | 0.52 | 0.3% |
| 18 | Dani Olmo | Spain | 6.18 | 3.09 | 3.09 | 7.7 | 0.40 | 1.9% |
| 19 | Ezri Konsa | England | 6.16 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 4.8 | 0.64 | 3.0% |
| 20 | Bradley Barcola | France | 6.05 | 3.02 | 8.25 | 8.0 | 0.38 | 1.5% |

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Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/round/7/captains.json