# Emiliano Martinez leads Round 7 efficiency despite modest ownership

> Argentina's goalkeeper delivers the highest points per million in the dataset, but the real value lies in tier-specific picks.

By the evmax model · 14 July 2026 · https://evmax.ai/round/7/efficiency/

Emiliano Martinez sits at the heart of Round 7's efficiency story. At 5.0m, he projects 3.53 xPts with a safe floor and no big-haul upside — a 0.707 points per million, the highest in the dataset. His 30% ownership reflects his status as a consensus pick, yet the model still rates him as the most efficient use of capital. That paradox matters: sometimes the crowd gets it right, and sometimes the crowd is just crowded.

But efficiency is a tier game. Within the Budget bracket (under 5.5m), Jordan Pickford emerges as the single best-value pick at 0.77 points per million — a 4.8m England goalkeeper projecting 3.69 xPts. He undercuts Martinez on price while outperforming him on value, though his 15.9% ownership suggests the market has already priced in that edge. For those building on a shoestring, Pickford is the play.

> The Mid tier (5.5m–8.0m) belongs to Noni Madueke, a 6.1m England forward projecting 3.14 xPts with a 6.29 ceiling — his 85th-percentile sim — and a 0.515 points per million. At just 0.3% ownership, he is the tier's most undervalued asset, though his forward position carries inherent volatility.

In the Premium bracket (over 8.0m), Oyarzabal claims the efficiency crown at 0.481 points per million. The Spain forward costs 8.1m and projects 3.89 xPts with a 7.4 ceiling — a 1.901 ceiling ratio that hints at genuine upside if he finds the net. Lionel Messi (10.0m, 0.482 points per million) sits fractionally behind, but Oyarzabal's lower price and higher ceiling ratio make him the smarter premium allocation.

**Bottom line:** Pickford is the Budget anchor, Madueke the Mid unlock, and Oyarzabal the Premium edge. Build around those three and you have a foundation grounded in the model's efficiency rankings, not the crowd's consensus.

**Bottom line:** Pickford is the Budget anchor, Madueke the Mid unlock, and Oyarzabal the Premium edge. Build around those three and you have a foundation grounded in the model's efficiency rankings, not the crowd's consensus.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | Pts/m | xPts | Price | Captain EV | Owned % | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Pickford | England | 0.77 | 3.69 | 4.8 | 7.39 | 15.9% | 3.69 |
| 2 | Emiliano Martinez | Argentina | 0.71 | 3.53 | 5.0 | 7.07 | 30.0% | 3.53 |
| 3 | Mike Maignan | France | 0.69 | 3.42 | 5.0 | 6.85 | 8.9% | 3.42 |
| 4 | Ezri Konsa | England | 0.64 | 3.08 | 4.8 | 6.16 | 3.0% | 3.08 |
| 5 | Unai Simon | Spain | 0.64 | 3.19 | 5.0 | 6.39 | 8.5% | 3.19 |
| 6 | Nico O'Reilly | England | 0.60 | 2.80 | 4.7 | 5.60 | 10.8% | 2.80 |
| 7 | Facundo Medina | Argentina | 0.58 | 2.33 | 4.0 | 4.67 | 9.4% | 2.33 |
| 8 | Marc Guehi | England | 0.56 | 2.83 | 5.1 | 5.66 | 6.2% | 2.83 |
| 9 | Dayot Upamecano | France | 0.54 | 2.85 | 5.3 | 5.70 | 4.9% | 2.85 |
| 10 | Djed Spence | England | 0.53 | 2.40 | 4.5 | 4.81 | 0.5% | 2.40 |
| 11 | V. Livramento | England | 0.53 | 2.42 | 4.6 | 4.83 | 0.1% | 2.42 |
| 12 | Lisandro Martinez | Argentina | 0.52 | 2.41 | 4.6 | 4.81 | 7.0% | 2.41 |
| 13 | Noni Madueke | England | 0.52 | 3.14 | 6.1 | 6.29 | 0.3% | 3.14 |
| 14 | Jules Kounde | France | 0.51 | 2.76 | 5.4 | 5.52 | 6.3% | 2.76 |
| 15 | M. Llorente | Spain | 0.50 | 2.73 | 5.5 | 5.46 | 4.5% | 2.73 |
| 16 | William Saliba | France | 0.49 | 2.62 | 5.3 | 5.24 | 13.0% | 2.62 |
| 17 | Cristian Romero | Argentina | 0.48 | 2.38 | 4.9 | 4.75 | 5.8% | 2.38 |
| 18 | Lionel Messi | Argentina | 0.48 | 4.82 | 10.0 | 9.64 | 40.4% | 7.84 |
| 19 | Oyarzabal | Spain | 0.48 | 3.89 | 8.1 | 7.79 | 10.8% | 7.40 |
| 20 | Mbappé | France | 0.47 | 4.92 | 10.5 | 9.84 | 59.2% | 7.59 |

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Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/round/7/efficiency.json