# Unai Simon is the knockout round's safest transfer

> Spain's goalkeeper ranks first because his team is likely to advance. That changes everything.

By the evmax model · 19 July 2026 · https://evmax.ai/round/8/transfers/

Transfer priority in knockout football is not about raw expected points—it's about expected points *that matter*. A brilliant pick on an eliminated team is a wasted transfer. That's why Unai Simon, Spain's goalkeeper, ranks first despite projecting only 3.89 xPts, a safe floor with no big-haul upside. His 3.73 value over replacement is solid for a goalkeeper, but the real edge is Spain's 59.5% chance of advancing past this round. Compare that to Jordan Pickford (England, rank 2) and Mike Maignan (France, rank 3), who project similar value over replacement—3.16 and 3.14 respectively—but face 50.1% and 49.9% advancement odds. When you discount for elimination risk, Simon's priority score (5.949) pulls decisively clear.

The math is brutal. Pickford's priority score falls to 4.743 and Maignan's to 4.707, despite nearly identical floor-to-replacement ratios. Emiliano Martinez (Argentina, rank 4) projects 3.36 xPts with 3.2 value over replacement, but Argentina's 40.5% advancement probability tanks his priority to 4.496. In knockout football, a coin-flip team's premium pick becomes a liability. Simon's 59.5% survival rate means his 3.73 VOR is more likely to compound across multiple rounds, while a goalkeeper from a 50-50 team could vanish after one match.

> When you discount for elimination risk, Simon's priority score pulls decisively clear of every other goalkeeper in the data.

If you have a second transfer available, the next move is Aymeric Laporte (Spain, rank 8). He projects 3.28 xPts with 1.81 value over replacement and also benefits from Spain's 59.5% advancement odds, giving him a priority score of 2.887. Laporte is cheaper (5.5m) than many premium midfielders and offers the same advancement insurance as Simon. The Spain stack—Simon, Laporte, and even Cucurella (1.54 VOR, 2.456 priority)—is not about ceiling upside; it's about survival. You're buying a team that is likely to still be playing next round, and that liquidity is worth more than a higher projected floor on a team facing elimination.

**Bottom line:** Prioritise Unai Simon first—his 3.73 value over replacement is boosted by Spain's 59.5% advancement odds, making him the round's highest-priority transfer. If you have a second move, target Aymeric Laporte to double down on Spain's survival edge rather than chase higher raw projections from players on 50-50 teams.

**Bottom line:** Prioritise Unai Simon first—his 3.73 value over replacement is boosted by Spain's 59.5% advancement odds, making him the round's highest-priority transfer. If you have a second move, target Aymeric Laporte to double down on Spain's survival edge rather than chase higher raw projections from players on 50-50 teams.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | Priority | VOR | xPts | Advance % | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Unai Simon | Spain | 5.95 | 3.73 | 3.89 | 59.5% | 5.0 | 8.5% |
| 2 | Jordan Pickford | England | 4.74 | 3.16 | 3.32 | 50.1% | 4.8 | 15.9% |
| 3 | Mike Maignan | France | 4.71 | 3.14 | 3.30 | 49.9% | 5.0 | 8.9% |
| 4 | Emiliano Martinez | Argentina | 4.50 | 3.20 | 3.36 | 40.5% | 5.0 | 30.0% |
| 5 | Kane | England | 4.01 | 2.67 | 5.02 | 50.1% | 10.5 | 40.6% |
| 6 | Lionel Messi | Argentina | 3.44 | 2.45 | 4.80 | 40.5% | 10.0 | 40.4% |
| 7 | Mbappé | France | 3.24 | 2.16 | 4.51 | 49.9% | 10.5 | 59.2% |
| 8 | Aymeric Laporte | Spain | 2.89 | 1.81 | 3.28 | 59.5% | 5.5 | 9.2% |
| 9 | Oyarzabal | Spain | 2.77 | 1.74 | 4.09 | 59.5% | 8.1 | 10.8% |
| 10 | Cucurella | Spain | 2.46 | 1.54 | 3.01 | 59.5% | 5.1 | 27.0% |
| 11 | Pau Cubarsi | Spain | 2.31 | 1.45 | 2.92 | 59.5% | 5.0 | 6.1% |
| 12 | Bellingham | England | 2.31 | 1.54 | 3.61 | 50.1% | 8.3 | 17.0% |
| 13 | Lamine Yamal | Spain | 2.30 | 1.44 | 3.51 | 59.5% | 10.0 | 39.3% |
| 14 | Pedri | Spain | 2.12 | 1.33 | 3.40 | 59.5% | 8.1 | 7.8% |
| 15 | Ousmane Dembele | France | 2.10 | 1.40 | 3.47 | 49.9% | 10.0 | 22.9% |
| 16 | M. Llorente | Spain | 2.07 | 1.30 | 2.77 | 59.5% | 5.5 | 4.5% |
| 17 | Dayot Upamecano | France | 1.86 | 1.24 | 2.71 | 49.9% | 5.3 | 4.9% |
| 18 | Michael Olise | France | 1.74 | 1.16 | 3.23 | 49.9% | 9.5 | 34.1% |
| 19 | Dani Olmo | Spain | 1.74 | 1.09 | 3.16 | 59.5% | 7.7 | 1.9% |
| 20 | Ezri Konsa | England | 1.71 | 1.14 | 2.61 | 50.1% | 4.8 | 3.0% |

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Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/round/8/transfers.json