Four approaches. One season of evidence.
Registered — awaiting the first complete pre-deadline comparison.
These are virtual experimental squads, separate from our two existing published teams. Every approach starts with the same 15 players and £100m budget. We freeze all four forecasts together, then track their decisions and outcomes.
| Approach / versions | Points after hits | Forecast RMSE | Forecast MAE | Human interventions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market model without editorial overrides Awaiting frozen weekly results | — | — | — | — |
| Odds-free early-season ridge Awaiting frozen weekly results | — | — | — | — |
| Prespecified 50/50 market-statistical blend Awaiting frozen weekly results | — | — | — | — |
| FPL + FFIQ forecast reference Awaiting frozen weekly results | — | — | — | — |
Graded gameweeks: None yet. Frozen weeks awaiting grades: None.
Lower forecast error is better; more squad points is better. Forecast losses are averaged with equal weight per gameweek on identical player populations. A lucky captain can win a week without proving that the underlying forecast is better. We do not automatically select a winner.
The controlled decision policy
Version 1 considers at most one positive-net transfer per week, then selects a legal XI, captain and vice using expected points. Bank balances, purchase and selling prices, free transfers and hits carry forward. Chips are disabled for every approach. This is a controlled comparison, not a complete season optimizer.
Model versions and any human intervention are recorded before the deadline. Existing history is never backfilled into this experiment. Missing providers, partial results, changed rules or missing weeks stop the pipeline rather than silently changing the comparison.
What the four forecasts use
The market arm combines match odds with official player statistics, with editorial overrides disabled. The statistical arm uses lagged points, minutes, xG and xA with coefficients fitted on 2023/24. Neither internal model uses FC27 ratings.
The hybrid is a prespecified 50/50 average, not an optimized blend. The reference averages official FPL projections with Fantasy Football IQ; players absent from FFIQ retain the official projection, with coverage recorded in the evidence. External providers' training and underlying data lineage are undisclosed. No approach has yet demonstrated a prospective advantage in this experiment.
Download the experiment summary · Published comparisons · Existing track record