Every prediction, graded
Before every round locks, we publish our picks as a frozen, timestamped snapshot. Once the round finishes, we grade that exact snapshot against the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy points — no do-overs, no rebuilding the model after the fact. Misses are shown alongside hits. Rounds marked retrospective were reconstructed after results were known — from frozen closing odds — and are shown for context, not credit.
Round 7
Our top captain pick, Mbappé, was projected 4.9 pts and actually scored 1.0.
| Article | MAE | Rank corr. | Matched | Top pick (proj.→real) | Best in list (real) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blowout Transfers | 1.97 | 0.06 | 16/20 | Mbappé (4.9→1.0) | Lionel Messi (8.0) |
| Captains | 2.41 | 0.20 | 18/20 | Mbappé (4.9→1.0) | Lionel Messi (8.0) |
| Defenders | 2.45 | -0.69 | 13/15 | Ezri Konsa (3.1→0.0) | Aymeric Laporte (7.0) |
| Efficiency | 2.33 | 0.51 | 17/20 | Jordan Pickford (3.7→2.0) | Unai Simon (8.0) |
| Fixtures | no matched entries | ||||
| Matches | fixture grading not implemented in v1 | ||||
| Risky | 2.22 | 0.25 | 14/20 | Nico Williams (3.5→1.0) | Unai Simon (8.0) |
| Transfers | 2.31 | 0.50 | 20/20 | Jordan Pickford (3.7→2.0) | Unai Simon (8.0) |
| Wildcard | 2.21 | 0.34 | 13/15 | Mbappé (4.9→1.0) | Lionel Messi (8.0) |
Name-match coverage vs the official FIFA fantasy feed: 36/51 players.
Honest misses
- Round 7 captains: top pick Mbappé scored only 1.0 pts (projected 4.9).
- Round 7 captains: left 7.0 pts on the table — Lionel Messi (8.0 pts) outscored our top pick Mbappé (1.0 pts).
- Round 7 defenders: our ranking was negatively correlated with reality (Spearman -0.69).
Round 6
Our top captain pick, Lionel Messi, was projected 5.6 pts and actually scored 5.0.
| Article | MAE | Rank corr. | Matched | Top pick (proj.→real) | Best in list (real) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blowout Transfers | 2.54 | 0.47 | 17/20 | Kane (5.5→3.0) | Bellingham (14.0) |
| Captains | 2.92 | -0.11 | 20/20 | Lionel Messi (5.6→5.0) | Bellingham (14.0) |
| Defenders | 1.69 | 0.46 | 12/15 | Dayot Upamecano (4.0→7.0) | Dayot Upamecano (7.0) |
| Efficiency | 1.92 | 0.32 | 19/20 | Emiliano Martinez (4.3→3.0) | Mike Maignan (7.0) |
| Fixtures | no matched entries | ||||
| Matches | fixture grading not implemented in v1 | ||||
| Risky | 2.98 | 0.17 | 15/20 | Bellingham (3.8→14.0) | Bellingham (14.0) |
| Transfers | 2.53 | 0.37 | 18/20 | Lionel Messi (5.6→5.0) | Mbappé (13.0) |
| Wildcard | 3.36 | 0.07 | 12/15 | Lionel Messi (5.6→5.0) | Bellingham (14.0) |
Name-match coverage vs the official FIFA fantasy feed: 49/69 players.
Honest misses
- Round 6 captains: our ranking was negatively correlated with reality (Spearman -0.11).
- Round 6 captains: left 9.0 pts on the table — Bellingham (14.0 pts) outscored our top pick Lionel Messi (5.0 pts).
Round 5
Our top captain pick, Lionel Messi, was projected 7.4 pts and actually scored 11.0. The published best XI projected 59.3 total points; it actually scored 60.0.
| Article | MAE | Rank corr. | Matched | Top pick (proj.→real) | Best in list (real) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best Xi | 2.98 | 0.25 | 11/11 | Lionel Messi (7.5→11.0) | Lionel Messi (11.0) |
| Blowout Transfers | 2.11 | 0.29 | 17/20 | Mbappé (6.1→9.0) | E. Haaland (13.0) |
| Captains | 3.18 | 0.22 | 20/20 | Lionel Messi (7.4→11.0) | E. Haaland (13.0) |
| Defenders | 3.28 | 0.31 | 14/15 | Dayot Upamecano (5.0→7.0) | Achraf Hakimi (9.0) |
| Efficiency | 3.35 | 0.14 | 19/20 | Mike Maignan (5.0→7.0) | Noussair Mazraoui (9.0) |
| Fixtures | no matched entries | ||||
| Matches | fixture grading not implemented in v1 | ||||
| Risky | 3.31 | -0.42 | 15/20 | Leandro Trossard (4.2→5.0) | Azzedine Ounahi (16.0) |
| Transfers | 2.96 | 0.21 | 19/20 | Lionel Messi (7.4→11.0) | Lionel Messi (11.0) |
| Wildcard | 3.26 | 0.34 | 14/15 | Lionel Messi (7.4→11.0) | Lionel Messi (11.0) |
Name-match coverage vs the official FIFA fantasy feed: 58/83 players.
Honest misses
- Round 5 captains: left 2.0 pts on the table — E. Haaland (13.0 pts) outscored our top pick Lionel Messi (11.0 pts).
- Round 5 risky: our ranking was negatively correlated with reality (Spearman -0.42).
Round 4
Reconstructed after the fact from frozen closing odds (research overlay off, fixed seed). NOT published predictions.
Our top captain pick, Kane, was projected 8.0 pts and actually scored 13.0. The published best XI projected 65.6 total points; it actually scored 54.0.
| Article | MAE | Rank corr. | Matched | Top pick (proj.→real) | Best in list (real) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best Xi | 3.48 | 0.63 | 11/11 | Kane (8.0→13.0) | Mbappé (14.0) |
| Captains | 3.41 | 0.62 | 18/20 | Kane (8.0→13.0) | Mbappé (14.0) |
Name-match coverage vs the official FIFA fantasy feed: 20/22 players.
Honest misses
- Round 4 captains: left 1.0 pts on the table — Mbappé (14.0 pts) outscored our top pick Kane (13.0 pts).
Method. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy points table. Grading: MAE compares our projected expected points to realized official points across matched entries; rank correlation (Spearman) checks whether our ordering matched reality, not just our top pick; captain regret is the gap between the best-scoring player in our own published list and the one we actually named captain. A round is graded only once every one of its fixtures has finished.