Every prediction, graded
Before every round locks, we publish our picks as a frozen, timestamped snapshot. Once the round finishes, we grade that exact snapshot against the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy points — no do-overs, no rebuilding the model after the fact. Misses are shown alongside hits.
Round 5
Results pendingThis round is still in progress — matches have not all finished, so we have not graded it yet. The published prediction snapshot is already frozen and will be graded automatically once the round completes.
Round 3
FinalOur top captain pick, Amad Diallo, was projected 8.6 pts and actually scored 1.0. The published best XI projected 72.8 total points; it actually scored 72.0.
| Article | MAE | Rank corr. | Matched | Top pick (proj.→real) | Best in list (real) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best Value Xi | 4.44 | -0.61 | 8/11 | Amad Diallo (8.6→1.0) | Orlando Gill (10.0) |
| Best Xi | 4.18 | -0.26 | 11/11 | Amad Diallo (8.6→1.0) | Leandro Trossard (17.0) |
| Blowout Transfers | 3.17 | 0.32 | 15/20 | Crysencio Summerville (6.6→1.0) | Bellingham (14.0) |
| Captains | 3.80 | -0.01 | 18/20 | Amad Diallo (8.6→1.0) | Leandro Trossard (17.0) |
| Differentials | 4.83 | 0.17 | 18/20 | Amad Diallo (8.6→1.0) | Leandro Trossard (17.0) |
| High Ceiling Xi | 4.87 | -0.39 | 10/11 | Amad Diallo (8.6→1.0) | Leandro Trossard (17.0) |
Name-match coverage vs the official FIFA fantasy feed: 41/52 players.
Honest misses
- Round 3 best-value-xi: our ranking was negatively correlated with reality (Spearman -0.61).
- Round 3 best-xi: our ranking was negatively correlated with reality (Spearman -0.26).
- Round 3 captains: top pick Amad Diallo scored only 1.0 pts (projected 8.6).
- Round 3 captains: our ranking was negatively correlated with reality (Spearman -0.01).
- Round 3 captains: left 16.0 pts on the table — Leandro Trossard (17.0 pts) outscored our top pick Amad Diallo (1.0 pts).
- Round 3 high-ceiling-xi: our ranking was negatively correlated with reality (Spearman -0.39).
Method. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy points table. Grading: MAE compares our projected expected points to realized official points across matched entries; rank correlation (Spearman) checks whether our ordering matched reality, not just our top pick; captain regret is the gap between the best-scoring player in our own published list and the one we actually named captain. A round is graded only once every one of its fixtures has finished.