ARS own the best six gameweeks from here
ARS project 1.24 clean sheets across the next six gameweeks; COV project 0.89 — and ARS's opener flatters their run.
One free transfer a gameweek — bankable to five, and any extra costs four points — means the squad you buy this week is mostly the squad you still own six gameweeks from now. So the question is not who plays the kindest fixture on Saturday; it is who plays the kindest six. ARS answer it: COV (H), AVL (A), CHE (H), SUN (A), BHA (A), LEE (H), worth 1.24 expected clean sheets across the window.
| Club | Clean sheets | GW1 | GW2 | GW3 | GW4 | GW5 | GW6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARS | 1.24 | COV (H) | AVL (A) | CHE (H) | SUN (A) | BHA (A) | LEE (H) |
| MCI | 1.22 | BOU (H) | CRY (A) | COV (H) | MUN (A) | SUN (H) | LIV (A) |
| MUN | 1.19 | HUL (A) | IPS (H) | EVE (A) | MCI (H) | FUL (A) | TOT (H) |
| LIV | 1.18 | NEW (A) | NFO (H) | IPS (A) | FUL (H) | BOU (A) | MCI (H) |
| CHE | 1.17 | FUL (A) | BHA (H) | ARS (A) | HUL (H) | BRE (A) | BOU (H) |
| AVL | 1.09 | BHA (A) | ARS (H) | HUL (A) | NFO (H) | TOT (A) | BRE (H) |
| EVE | 1.04 | CRY (H) | BOU (A) | MUN (H) | TOT (A) | IPS (H) | HUL (A) |
| BRE | 1.03 | TOT (H) | LEE (A) | SUN (H) | BOU (A) | CHE (H) | AVL (A) |
| NFO | 1.03 | LEE (H) | LIV (A) | TOT (H) | AVL (A) | COV (H) | CRY (A) |
| CRY | 1.03 | EVE (A) | MCI (H) | FUL (A) | IPS (H) | LEE (A) | NFO (H) |
| TOT | 1.02 | BRE (A) | NEW (H) | NFO (A) | EVE (H) | AVL (H) | MUN (A) |
| NEW | 0.99 | LIV (H) | TOT (A) | BOU (H) | LEE (A) | HUL (H) | COV (A) |
| BOU | 0.97 | MCI (A) | EVE (H) | NEW (A) | BRE (H) | LIV (H) | CHE (A) |
| LEE | 0.97 | NFO (A) | BRE (H) | BHA (A) | NEW (H) | CRY (H) | ARS (A) |
| SUN | 0.97 | IPS (A) | FUL (H) | BRE (A) | ARS (H) | MCI (A) | BHA (H) |
| BHA | 0.95 | AVL (H) | CHE (A) | LEE (H) | COV (A) | ARS (H) | SUN (A) |
| FUL | 0.94 | CHE (H) | SUN (A) | CRY (H) | LIV (A) | MUN (H) | IPS (A) |
| HUL | 0.90 | MUN (H) | COV (A) | AVL (H) | CHE (A) | NEW (A) | EVE (H) |
| IPS | 0.90 | SUN (H) | MUN (A) | LIV (H) | CRY (A) | EVE (A) | FUL (H) |
| COV | 0.89 | ARS (A) | HUL (H) | MCI (A) | BHA (H) | NFO (A) | NEW (H) |
The other end of the grid is COV: ARS (A), HUL (H), MCI (A), BHA (H), NFO (A), NEW (H), and 0.89 expected clean sheets to show for it. That is the floor and the ceiling of this window in one breath — same number of gameweeks, 0.35 clean sheets between them.
ARS are the awkward case. They top this grid on the aggregate — and their opener rates 2 on the difficulty scale while the five fixtures behind it average 3.2. One kind Saturday, then an ordinary month.
ARS run COV (H), AVL (A), CHE (H), SUN (A), BHA (A), LEE (H). Across the window they lead MCI by 2% on expected clean sheets — a real lead, and a thin one. A ticker that stops at Saturday prices that opening fixture as though it repeats six times; the row above says it does not.
NFO, SUN and IPS split the same way — near fixture and run pointing in opposite directions. Check the row, not the first cell.
No blank and no double falls inside this window, so every club on the grid plays exactly once a week — the runs are the whole story.
Every number on this grid comes from our own team ratings, not from the betting market — nothing in this window is priced yet. Treat the near gameweeks as firmer than the far ones: team news, form and injuries all move before week six arrives.
The data
| # | Player | Clean sheets | FDR | Fixtures | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARS | 1.24 | 3.0 | 6 | model |
| 2 | MCI | 1.22 | 3.0 | 6 | model |
| 3 | MUN | 1.19 | 2.7 | 6 | model |
| 4 | LIV | 1.18 | 2.8 | 6 | model |
| 5 | CHE | 1.17 | 3.0 | 6 | model |
| 6 | AVL | 1.09 | 3.0 | 6 | model |
| 7 | EVE | 1.04 | 2.9 | 6 | model |
| 8 | BRE | 1.03 | 3.1 | 6 | model |
| 9 | NFO | 1.03 | 3.0 | 6 | model |
| 10 | CRY | 1.03 | 3.1 | 6 | model |
| 11 | TOT | 1.02 | 2.9 | 6 | model |
| 12 | NEW | 0.99 | 3.0 | 6 | model |
| 13 | BOU | 0.97 | 3.7 | 6 | model |
| 14 | LEE | 0.97 | 3.1 | 6 | model |
| 15 | SUN | 0.97 | 2.9 | 6 | model |
| 16 | BHA | 0.95 | 3.0 | 6 | model |
| 17 | FUL | 0.94 | 3.4 | 6 | model |
| 18 | HUL | 0.90 | 3.2 | 6 | model |
| 19 | IPS | 0.90 | 3.0 | 6 | model |
| 20 | COV | 0.89 | 3.4 | 6 | model |
Bottom line
Buy into ARS — 1.24 expected clean sheets over six gameweeks is the run worth spending a transfer on, but buy it for the whole run and not the opener: the five fixtures behind it average 3.2 on difficulty.
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How we get these numbers. Player scoring rates (goals, assists, defensive contributions) come from each player's own FPL data, not betting markets; match outcomes (de-vigged market odds, or a team-strength rating when a fixture isn't priced) drive 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw1/runs.json.