Player card · Gameweek 2
Tier C · BudgetBRE

Carvalho

MID · £5.0m · Gameweek 2

Lack of match fitness - 75% chance of playing (status: d)

0.10xPts this gameweek
ceiling 0.69captain EV 0.21owned 0.0%
season 0 ptsrealized 0.00 pts/£mown vs xPts rank +50
LEE (A)GW2SUN (H)GW3BOU (A)GW4CHE (H)GW5
hold · tier C · Budget
🔒Premium — coming soon: full distribution · your-team fit
eBy the evmax model · 25 August 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 2
Expected points (xPts)0.10
Captain EV0.21
Ceiling (best 15% of sims)0.69
Projected pts/£m0.021
Expected bonus (per match)1.58
DefCon points (per match)0.00
P(DefCon threshold)0.001
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.00
Start probability0.02
Price£5.0m
Ownership0.0%
xPts rank / ownership rank457 / 507
Season points (minutes)0 (100′)
Realized pts/£m0.00
VerdictC · Budget · hold

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw2/players/100.json.