Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier S · MidBRE

Thiago

FWD · £7.8m · Gameweek 7
5.95xPts0.76pts/£m
floor 1 · ceiling 13
1546.05.65.65.1
GW4 1 points played · GW5 5 points played · GW6 4 points played · GW7 6.0 projected · GW8 5.6 projected · GW9 5.6 projected · GW10 5.1 projected
GW45678910
LIVHULNFOBHA
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank4thcaptain EV11.90owned9.2%season14 ptspts/£m so far1.79
attack 4.7bonus 1.3= 6.0 xPts
floor 1most likely 2 38%ceiling 13
10,000 simulations: floor 1, most likely 2 (38% of simulations), ceiling 13 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we own him, in our XI
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)5.95
Captain EV11.90
Top 15% of sims, average14.35
Projected pts/£m0.763
Expected bonus (per match)1.30
DefCon points (per match)0.00
P(DefCon threshold)0.001
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.00
Start prior (before lineup constraints)1.00
Price£7.8m
Ownership9.2%
xPts rank / ownership rank4 / 37
Season points (minutes)14 (532′)
Realized pts/£m1.79
Model tierS · Mid
Our positionwe own him, in our XI

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

Research notes on file: Thiago. Notes carry sourced minutes/rotation judgement that overrides the raw model.

Currently in the XI of our squad.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/106.json.