Player card · Gameweek 2
Tier S · MidARS

Mosquera

DEF · £5.5m · Gameweek 2
3.83xPts this gameweek
GW1 4.45 · GW2 0.91 · GW3 1.07 · GW4 0.91 · GW5 0.91 · GW6 1.07GW1GW6
ceiling 8.63captain EV 7.65owned 6.0%
season 6 ptsrealized 1.09 pts/£mown vs xPts rank +34
AVL (A)GW2CHE (H)GW3SUN (A)GW4BHA (A)GW5
buy · tier S · Mid
🔒Premium — coming soon: full distribution · your-team fit
eBy the evmax model · 25 August 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 2
Expected points (xPts)3.83
Captain EV7.65
Ceiling (best 15% of sims)8.63
Projected pts/£m0.696
Expected bonus (per match)0.14
DefCon points (per match)0.52
P(DefCon threshold)0.259
Clean-sheet points (per match)1.52
Start probability0.24
Price£5.5m
Ownership6.0%
xPts rank / ownership rank28 / 62
Season points (minutes)6 (986′)
Realized pts/£m1.09
VerdictS · Mid · buy

Research notes on file: Mosquera. Notes carry sourced minutes/rotation judgement that overrides the raw model.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw2/players/11.json.