Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · MidCHE

Welbeck

FWD · £5.9m · Gameweek 7
1.10xPts0.19pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 2
1211.11.11.11.1
GW4 1 points played · GW5 2 points played · GW6 1 points played · GW7 1.1 projected · GW8 1.1 projected · GW9 1.1 projected · GW10 1.1 projected
GW45678910
EVETOTMUNSUN
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank251stcaptain EV2.20owned0.9%season5 ptspts/£m so far0.85
attack 0.7bonus 0.5= 1.1 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 64%ceiling 2
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (64% of simulations), ceiling 2 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)1.10
Captain EV2.20
Top 15% of sims, average5.65
Projected pts/£m0.186
Expected bonus (per match)0.45
DefCon points (per match)0.00
P(DefCon threshold)0.001
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.00
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.23
Price£5.9m
Ownership0.9%
xPts rank / ownership rank251 / 195
Season points (minutes)5 (92′)
Realized pts/£m0.85
Model tierB · Mid
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/136.json.