Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · BudgetCHE

Lavia

MID · £5.0m · Gameweek 7
1.61xPts0.32pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 4
1211.61.61.71.6
GW3 1 points played · GW4 2 points played · GW6 1 points played · GW7 1.6 projected · GW8 1.6 projected · GW9 1.7 projected · GW10 1.6 projected
GW34678910
EVETOTMUNSUN
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank218thcaptain EV3.21owned0.2%season12 ptspts/£m so far2.40
attack 1.2clean sheet 0.1defence 0.1bonus 0.1= 1.6 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 46%ceiling 4
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (46% of simulations), ceiling 4 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)1.61
Captain EV3.21
Top 15% of sims, average5.92
Projected pts/£m0.322
Expected bonus (per match)0.09
DefCon points (per match)0.15
P(DefCon threshold)0.076
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.14
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.50
Price£5.0m
Ownership0.2%
xPts rank / ownership rank218 / 345
Season points (minutes)12 (276′)
Realized pts/£m2.40
Model tierB · Budget
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/161.json.