Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · BudgetCRY

Lerma

MID · £4.8m · Gameweek 7
1.11xPts0.23pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 4
1081.11.21.21.2
GW4 1 points played · GW5 0 points played · GW6 8 points played · GW7 1.1 projected · GW8 1.2 projected · GW9 1.2 projected · GW10 1.2 projected
GW45678910
BHANEWTOTLIV
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank250thcaptain EV2.22owned0.1%season9 ptspts/£m so far1.88
attack 0.8clean sheet 0.0defence 0.2bonus 0.1= 1.1 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 60%ceiling 4
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (60% of simulations), ceiling 4 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)1.11
Captain EV2.22
Top 15% of sims, average5.09
Projected pts/£m0.231
Expected bonus (per match)0.10
DefCon points (per match)0.19
P(DefCon threshold)0.096
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.04
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.28
Price£4.8m
Ownership0.1%
xPts rank / ownership rank250 / 437
Season points (minutes)9 (122′)
Realized pts/£m1.88
Model tierB · Budget
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/213.json.