Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier A · MidEVE

Tarkowski

DEF · £6.2m · Gameweek 7
3.79xPts0.61pts/£m
floor 1 · ceiling 9
81433.83.03.84.4
GW4 8 points played · GW5 14 points played · GW6 3 points played · GW7 3.8 projected · GW8 3.0 projected · GW9 3.8 projected · GW10 4.4 projected
GW45678910
CHEARSNEWCOV
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank50thcaptain EV7.59owned18.4%season46 ptspts/£m so far7.42
attack 1.7clean sheet 0.8defence 0.9bonus 0.3= 3.8 xPts
floor 1most likely 1 18%ceiling 9
10,000 simulations: floor 1, most likely 1 (18% of simulations), ceiling 9 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we own him, in our XI
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)3.79
Captain EV7.59
Top 15% of sims, average9.86
Projected pts/£m0.611
Expected bonus (per match)0.31
DefCon points (per match)0.94
P(DefCon threshold)0.470
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.84
Start prior (before lineup constraints)1.00
Price£6.2m
Ownership18.4%
xPts rank / ownership rank50 / 19
Season points (minutes)46 (540′)
Realized pts/£m7.42
Model tierA · Mid
Our positionwe own him, in our XI

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

Research notes on file: Tarkowski. Notes carry sourced minutes/rotation judgement that overrides the raw model.

Currently in the XI of our squad.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/229.json.