Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier A · BudgetFUL

Castagne

DEF · £4.5m · Gameweek 7
2.97xPts0.66pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 7
1613.02.62.52.5
GW3 1 points played · GW4 6 points played · GW5 1 points played · GW7 3.0 projected · GW8 2.6 projected · GW9 2.5 projected · GW10 2.5 projected
GW34578910
HULCOVAVLNEW
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank105thcaptain EV5.94owned1.2%season20 ptspts/£m so far4.44
attack 1.6clean sheet 1.0defence 0.2bonus 0.1= 3.0 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 29%ceiling 7
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (29% of simulations), ceiling 7 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)2.97
Captain EV5.94
Top 15% of sims, average8.90
Projected pts/£m0.660
Expected bonus (per match)0.14
DefCon points (per match)0.17
P(DefCon threshold)0.087
Clean-sheet points (per match)1.04
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.72
Price£4.5m
Ownership1.2%
xPts rank / ownership rank105 / 163
Season points (minutes)20 (408′)
Realized pts/£m4.44
Model tierA · Budget
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/258.json.