Player card · Gameweek 2
Tier C · BudgetHUL

Ajayi

DEF · £4.0m · Gameweek 2

Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing (status: d)

0.50xPts this gameweek
GW1 0.37 · GW2 0.61 · GW3 0.57 · GW4 0.48 · GW5 0.49 · GW6 0.58GW1GW6
ceiling 3.38captain EV 1.00owned 1.5%
season 14 ptsrealized 3.50 pts/£mown vs xPts rank -240
COV (A)GW2AVL (H)GW3CHE (A)GW4NEW (A)GW5
hold · tier C · Budget
🔒Premium — coming soon: full distribution · your-team fit
eBy the evmax model · 25 August 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 2
Expected points (xPts)0.50
Captain EV1.00
Ceiling (best 15% of sims)3.38
Projected pts/£m0.125
Expected bonus (per match)0.29
DefCon points (per match)0.00
P(DefCon threshold)0.000
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.11
Start probability0.19
Price£4.0m
Ownership1.5%
xPts rank / ownership rank399 / 159
Season points (minutes)14 (0′)
Realized pts/£m3.50
VerdictC · Budget · hold

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw2/players/279.json.