Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier C · BudgetIPS

Furlong

DEF · £3.9m · Gameweek 7
0.17xPts0.04pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 1
10.20.20.20.20.2
GW2 1 points played · GW7 0.2 projected · GW8 0.2 projected · GW9 0.2 projected · GW10 0.2 projected · GW11 0.2 projected
GW27891011
MCINFOHULBOUTOT
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank470thcaptain EV0.34owned0.6%season1 pts
attack 0.2= 0.2 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 82%ceiling 1
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (82% of simulations), ceiling 1 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)0.17
Captain EV0.34
Top 15% of sims, average1.10
Projected pts/£m0.044
Expected bonus (per match)0.00
DefCon points (per match)0.00
P(DefCon threshold)0.001
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.00
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.01
Price£3.9m
Ownership0.6%
xPts rank / ownership rank470 / 225
Season points (minutes)1 (17′)
Realized pts/£m0.26
Model tierC · Budget
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/308.json.