Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · MidMCI

O'Reilly

DEF · £6.3m · Gameweek 7
2.47xPts0.39pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 7
1152.51.91.71.8
GW4 1 points played · GW5 1 points played · GW6 5 points played · GW7 2.5 projected · GW8 1.9 projected · GW9 1.7 projected · GW10 1.8 projected
GW45678910
IPSAVLBHANFO
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank143rdcaptain EV4.94owned9.5%season11 ptspts/£m so far1.75
attack 1.5clean sheet 0.8defence 0.0bonus 0.2= 2.5 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 48%ceiling 7
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (48% of simulations), ceiling 7 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
the consensus squad owns him, we do not
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)2.47
Captain EV4.94
Top 15% of sims, average9.77
Projected pts/£m0.392
Expected bonus (per match)0.19
DefCon points (per match)0.04
P(DefCon threshold)0.022
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.79
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.48
Price£6.3m
Ownership9.5%
xPts rank / ownership rank143 / 35
Season points (minutes)11 (228′)
Realized pts/£m1.75
Model tierB · Mid
Our positionthe consensus squad owns him, we do not

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

Research notes on file: O'Reilly. Notes carry sourced minutes/rotation judgement that overrides the raw model.

Currently in the XI of the consensus squad.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/387.json.