Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier A · MidMCI

Matheus N.

DEF · £5.9m · Gameweek 7
2.65xPts0.45pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 6
9162.62.22.12.1
GW4 9 points played · GW5 1 points played · GW6 6 points played · GW7 2.6 projected · GW8 2.2 projected · GW9 2.1 projected · GW10 2.1 projected
GW45678910
IPSAVLBHANFO
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank131stcaptain EV5.29owned1.0%season17 ptspts/£m so far2.88
attack 1.2clean sheet 1.1defence 0.3bonus 0.1= 2.6 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 34%ceiling 6
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (34% of simulations), ceiling 6 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)2.65
Captain EV5.29
Top 15% of sims, average7.55
Projected pts/£m0.449
Expected bonus (per match)0.05
DefCon points (per match)0.26
P(DefCon threshold)0.129
Clean-sheet points (per match)1.09
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.67
Price£5.9m
Ownership1.0%
xPts rank / ownership rank131 / 180
Season points (minutes)17 (303′)
Realized pts/£m2.88
Model tierA · Mid
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/389.json.