Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier A · MidMCI

Gvardiol

DEF · £5.8m · Gameweek 7
3.45xPts0.59pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 8
11443.52.72.52.6
GW4 11 points played · GW5 4 points played · GW6 4 points played · GW7 3.5 projected · GW8 2.7 projected · GW9 2.5 projected · GW10 2.6 projected
GW45678910
IPSAVLBHANFO
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank74thcaptain EV6.91owned28.1%season41 ptspts/£m so far7.07
attack 1.7clean sheet 1.2defence 0.1bonus 0.4= 3.5 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 29%ceiling 8
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (29% of simulations), ceiling 8 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)3.45
Captain EV6.91
Top 15% of sims, average10.36
Projected pts/£m0.595
Expected bonus (per match)0.40
DefCon points (per match)0.14
P(DefCon threshold)0.071
Clean-sheet points (per match)1.24
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.72
Price£5.8m
Ownership28.1%
xPts rank / ownership rank74 / 10
Season points (minutes)41 (458′)
Realized pts/£m7.07
Model tierA · Mid
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/391.json.