Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier S · MidARS

Gabriel

DEF · £7.9m · Gameweek 7
4.79xPts0.61pts/£m
floor 1 · ceiling 9
9124.85.24.24.7
GW4 9 points played · GW5 1 points played · GW6 2 points played · GW7 4.8 projected · GW8 5.2 projected · GW9 4.2 projected · GW10 4.7 projected
GW45678910
NFOEVELIVHUL
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank17thcaptain EV9.57owned21.8%season27 ptspts/£m so far3.42
attack 2.3clean sheet 1.8defence 0.4bonus 0.4= 4.8 xPts
floor 1most likely 2 21%ceiling 9
10,000 simulations: floor 1, most likely 2 (21% of simulations), ceiling 9 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)4.79
Captain EV9.57
Top 15% of sims, average10.84
Projected pts/£m0.606
Expected bonus (per match)0.36
DefCon points (per match)0.39
P(DefCon threshold)0.193
Clean-sheet points (per match)1.76
Start prior (before lineup constraints)1.00
Price£7.9m
Ownership21.8%
xPts rank / ownership rank17 / 15
Season points (minutes)27 (540′)
Realized pts/£m3.42
Model tierS · Mid
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/4.json.