Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier S · PremiumMCI

Haaland

FWD · £15.6m · Gameweek 7
8.63xPts0.55pts/£m
floor 1 · ceiling 17
9668.67.16.26.0
GW4 9 points played · GW5 6 points played · GW6 6 points played · GW7 8.6 projected · GW8 7.1 projected · GW9 6.2 projected · GW10 6.0 projected
GW45678910
IPSAVLBHANFO
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank1stcaptain EV17.26owned75.2%season45 ptspts/£m so far2.88
attack 6.7bonus 1.9= 8.6 xPts
floor 1most likely 2 20%ceiling 17
10,000 simulations: floor 1, most likely 2 (20% of simulations), ceiling 17 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
the consensus squad owns him, we do not
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)8.63
Captain EV17.26
Top 15% of sims, average18.55
Projected pts/£m0.553
Expected bonus (per match)1.91
DefCon points (per match)0.00
P(DefCon threshold)0.001
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.00
Start prior (before lineup constraints)1.00
Price£15.6m
Ownership75.2%
xPts rank / ownership rank1 / 1
Season points (minutes)45 (529′)
Realized pts/£m2.88
Model tierS · Premium
Our positionthe consensus squad owns him, we do not

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

Research notes on file: Haaland. Notes carry sourced minutes/rotation judgement that overrides the raw model.

Currently in the XI of the consensus squad.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/411.json.