Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier C · BudgetMUN

Mazraoui

DEF · £4.4m · Gameweek 7

Official FPL feed at forecast capture: Back injury - 75% chance of playing (status: d)

Model start prior (before lineup constraints): 0.07. The FPL percentage concerns playing. The model start prior is a separate estimate.

0.29xPts0.07pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 1
1110.30.30.30.3
GW1 1 points played · GW2 1 points played · GW3 1 points played · GW7 0.3 projected · GW8 0.3 projected · GW9 0.3 projected · GW10 0.3 projected
GW12378910
LEEBOUCHEAVL
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank357thcaptain EV0.58owned0.4%season3 ptspts/£m so far0.68
attack 0.2clean sheet 0.1defence 0.0bonus 0.0= 0.3 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 82%ceiling 1
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (82% of simulations), ceiling 1 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)0.29
Captain EV0.58
Top 15% of sims, average1.82
Projected pts/£m0.066
Expected bonus (per match)0.01
DefCon points (per match)0.02
P(DefCon threshold)0.010
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.05
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.07
Price£4.4m
Ownership0.4%
xPts rank / ownership rank357 / 267
Season points (minutes)3 (97′)
Realized pts/£m0.68
Model tierC · Budget
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/422.json.